《大行報告》瑞銀降阿里(BABA.US)目標價至112美元 過渡期下料第三財季疲弱
瑞銀發表研究報告指,預計阿里(BABA.US)第三財季收入按年增4%至2,590億元人民幣。當中,客戶管理收入(CMR)料按年增0.5%,GMV可能表現更強勁,料增長3%。隨著阿里巴巴建立低價思維以及GMV向淘寶轉移,CMR的表現可能會遜於GMV。另一方面,由於Trendyol表現強勁,AE Choice業務強勁增長,料國際商務收入或較去年同期增長40%。雲計算業務或持續受到網路產業需求疲弱的影響,但業務品質和利潤率應該會有所改善。而在國際業務推動下,菜鳥有望達到25%的強勁增長。該行預計,集團經調整EBITA為517億元人民幣,按年基本持平,按季則有所放緩。
該行認為,新任管理層上任後,集團正處於業務調整期。雖然財務數據將暫時受到影響,但基本業務營運指標應有更大彈性,包括GMV應該會穩步增長,市場份額損失的步伐將會放緩;淘寶天貓用戶參與度不斷提高;國際業務呈現強勁增長等。
瑞銀表示,短期內,由於宏觀經濟和業務策略的拖累,阿里巴巴的財務指標可能會保持疲弱,並料將會持續幾個季度。該行考慮到新業務轉型對集團的影響,將其2024至25財年的收入預測下調2%,每股盈測下調5至8%,美股目標價由120美元下調112美元,維持「買入」評級。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.