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《即日市評》恆指止連跌 港交所走弱 聯通績後挫
恆指連跌四日(累跌781點或4.4%)後,內地將增發1萬億人民幣國債支持災後重建等工作,大市今日回升。美企公布業績理想,美股道指及納指隔晚各升0.6%及0.9%;執筆之時,美國10年期債券孳息率升至4.853厘,美匯指數升至106.3,道指期貨最新升8點或0.02%,納指期貨最新跌0.6%。人民幣即期收跌75點報7.3150兌一美元,上證綜指全日升11點或0.4%收2,974點,深證成指升0.47%,而滬深兩市成交額共8,738億人民幣。 恆指顯著高開473點,其後升幅收窄,尾市曾低見17,001點,全日升93點或0.6%,收17,085點;國指升54點或0.9%,收5,853點;恆生科技指數升78點或2.2%,收3,700點。大市全日成交總額954.72億元。滬、深港通南下交易分別流入10.2億及4.78億元人民幣。 行政長官李家超於《施政報告》宣布下調股票印花稅稅率0.03個百分點至0.1%,目標於11月底完成立法程序。港交所(00388.HK)全日股價下滑4%收278.2元,港交所行政總裁歐冠昇稱措施將有助於降低交易成本,提高香港市場競爭力和吸引力。 【港交所受壓 聯通績後挫】 部份本地地產股走弱,新地(00016.HK)股價下滑0.5%,新世界(00017.HK)及恆地(00012.HK)各跌1.1%及0.7%。《施政報告》調整本地樓市「辣招」即日生效,額外印花稅的適用年期由3年縮短至2年(業主在持有物業兩年後出售物業,不用再繳付樓價10%的額外印花稅)、買家印花稅和新住宅印花稅的稅率減半,兩者都會由15%減至7.5%。 科網股普遍上揚,騰訊(00700.HK)升近1.7%收287.8元,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及美團(03690.HK)各漲2.7%及2%,但快手(01024.HK)股價逆市下滑3.9%。中資電訊股向下,中移動(00941.HK)跌2.1%,聯通(00762.HK)挫8.5%。摩根大通發表報告指,聯通第三季度業績令人失望,對比中移動及中電信(00728.HK)的收入加速趨勢,聯通收入按年增幅由第二季的6%減慢至4%,EBITDA亦輕微下跌,盈利按年增幅由第二季的14%減慢至3%,不過該行預期全年可以保持低十位數(low-teens)盈利增長,目標價由6.7元下調至5.5元,評級「中性」,今明兩年盈利預測各下調3%。 【市寬呈改善 建材股上揚】 港股主板今日市寬改善,主板股票的升跌比率為22比18(上日15比27);恆指成份股今日49隻股份上升,30隻股份下跌,升跌比率為61比38(上日為25比73);大市今日錄沽空163.59億元,佔可沽空股份成交額819.63億元的19.959%(上日19.384%)。 建材股上揚,海螺水泥(00914.HK)搶高6.3%、潤泥(01313.HK)揚近5.6%,中建材(03323.HK)彈高7.4%。中鋁(02600.HK)升近3.9%。就中央財政將在今年四季度增發2023年國債1萬億元人民幣,增發國債全部通過轉移支付方式安排給地方,集中力量支持災後恢復重建和彌補防災減災救災短板,整體提升中國抵禦自然災害的能力。全國財政赤字將由3.88萬億元人民幣增至4.88萬億元人民幣,預計赤字率由3%提高到3.8%左右。中金發表報告表示,政策積極信號釋放,推動內地建材板塊預期轉暖。 中金估計防水、水泥及管道板塊有望突出受益。本次增發國債著力「加快恢復重建」、「進一步提升我國防災減災救災能力」,第一是防水:防水需求有望受益於相關水利工程和建築災後的重建或修繕需求。第二是水泥:區域層面北方水泥龍頭冀東水泥(000401.SZ)相對受益,但海螺水泥、華新水泥(06655.HK)在安全邊際和彈性之間或更加均衡。第三是管道:政策有望帶動水利、地下管廊、市政相關的工程需求,中國聯塑(02128.HK) 、偉星新材(002372.SZ)有望從中受益。
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