《大行報告》摩通微升匯控(00005.HK)目標價至81元 房地產風險敞口可控
摩根大通發表研究報告指出,在內地所有民企及低質國企開發商存在違約風險、本港寫字樓價值出現重大調整,以及宏觀經濟嚴重惡化導致英國樓價出現大幅調整的壓力下,該行預期匯控(00005.HK)明年對中港房地產風險敞口及英國房地產(包括按揭)的總計額外預期信貸損失高達18億美元,拖累盈利約5%。在此情況下,預期匯控2024年的有形股本回報率(ROTE)將為13.6%,經調整股息率(包括回購在內)達11.6%,仍然具吸引力。
該行預期,匯控的房地產風險敞口可控。匯控於香港及英國的按揭資產質素仍具韌性,英國樓價較2019年疫情前水平高出20%;本港樓價則由2019年回調11%,但租賃市場有韌性,而香港銀行的按揭貸款於整個按揭資產質量(AQ)周期內錄得出色紀錄。因此,該行料抵押貸款預期信貸損失的上行風險較低。
然而,該行料內房情況將進一步惡化,截至今年6月底止,匯控對內房房地產風險敞口約為140億美元,佔貸款的1.5%。假設所有民企及低質國企開發商均陷入困境,那麼所有次級貸款將被下調至減值類別,導致匯控對內地房地產風險敞口撥備將由上半年的22億美元水平,增加至44億美元,相對於該行預期基本情況下明年撥備約37億美元,意味著帶來額外7.25億美元的預期信貸損失。此外,匯控對香港的房地產風險敞口為360億美元可控,較2021年水平縮減20%。
該行將匯控的目標價由80元上調至81元,評級「增持」。
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