《大行報告》海通國際下調阿里(BABA.US)目標價至134美元 料首財季收入按年升13%
海通國際發表研究報告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)截至6月底止首財季表現可能超出市場預期,預測收入將按年增長13%至2,251億元人民幣,較目前市場預期的2,217億元人民幣高出2%;經調整EBITA料按年增長21%至415億元人民幣,亦較市場預期的366億元人民幣高出13.4%。
該行指,阿里核心業務中國零售商業客戶管理收入(CMR)首季預期按年增長6%,主要來自於「618」促銷成績令人滿意,以及平台每日活躍用戶花費時長間及訂單頻率均呈上升趨勢的帶動。但考慮到去年的基數較高,該行預期截至9月底止次季CMR增幅可能會按季回落。
海通預測國際商務業務收入將增長30%至201億元人民幣;通過向速賣通提供服務,菜鳥將實現高於預期的增長,預期收入可按年提血25%至152億元人民幣;阿里雲業務收入則預期扭轉下跌趨勢,錄得按年增長4%至184億元人民幣。。
基於現時估值水平,該行維持對阿里的「跑贏大市」評級,美股目標價則從157美元下調至134美元。
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