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研報掘金丨中泰證券:古井貢酒省外開疆擴土正酣,看好公司內部管理水平不斷提升
格隆匯6月9日丨中泰證券8日研報指出,在全國化進程中,古井貢酒(000596.SZ)在產品層面以古20為核心單品,輔以古16、古8等產品進軍各地區次高端價格帶,品牌方面加速品牌打造。2023-2024年古井省內收入為116/134億元(報表口徑),對應22-24年CAGR為16%。湖北、河南、江蘇市場是古井全國化的主陣地。進一步輻射山東、京津冀、浙滬、閩粵等地區。在閩粵地區,“白進紅退”趨勢明顯,醬酒進入深度調整期,古井有望進一步擴寬市場份額。2023-2024年,預測古井在華南市場實現營收16/21億元,CAGR為44%。中長期來看,古20高舉高打勢能前進,產品結構持續升級,費用率優化確保盈利能力穩步提升,看好公司內部管理水平不斷提升,目前和洋河、今世緣等銷售淨利率略有差距,未來有望逐步向同價位段其他標的看齊。考慮到公司23年收入雙百億目標,預計2023-2025年營收分別為207、249、304億元,同比增長24%、20%、22%,歸母淨利潤分別為43、55、69億元,同比增長37%、27%、25%,對應EPS分別為7.80、9.94、12.40元,對應PE分別為31、24、19倍,重點推薦。
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