《大行報告》匯豐研究下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至137元 評級「買入」
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)上財季業績大致符合預期,但旗下中國零售商業客戶管理(CMR)收入按年跌5%遜預期,抵銷了國際業務增長影響,指季度淨利潤優預期因中國商業業務經調整EBITA毛利高預期、本地服務業務、數碼媒體及娛樂業務經調整EBITA虧損收窄。
該行料阿里截至今年6月底止(本財季)季度旗下中國零售商業客戶管理(CMR)收入可回復正增長,料海外業務亦可動收入表現。該行指阿里與微信的合作有積極作用,因為這可加強用戶參與度的努力可能會帶來更高的DAU,支持CMR恢復。
匯豐環球研究將阿里2024財年的收入預測下調0.3%,雲業務收入在2023財年季末轉為負數。雖然CDN需求減少和重新開放後造成的影響可能屬短暫性,但集團對質量而非數量的戰略重點可能會對雲收入增長產生更持久的影響。該行認為,阿里巴巴利潤率應可保持彈性,儘管集團擬加大再投資力度,但提高投資回報率應該有助於緩衝其盈利能力。
該行將阿里巴巴2024至2025財年的盈利預測小幅上調約1%。另外,該行仍然認為阿里重組活動可能會釋放某些業務部門的價值,但雲業務的潛在全面分拆亦引發問題,這是因為雲計算和國際商務被視為集團的長期增長動力。該行相信阿里短期內其股價或會出現波動,將阿里巴巴目標價由139港元下調至137港元,維持「買入」評級。
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