《季績前瞻》券商料匯控(00005.HK)首季列賬基準稅前利潤升逾1.1至1.3倍 聚焦會否復派季息
匯豐控股(00005.HK)將下周二(2日)公布今年首季度業績及審議會否派發今年第一次股息。受擬售法國業務減值回撥20億美元、淨利息收入上漲及收購矽谷銀行英國分支料錄得公平值溢利等因素影響,本網綜合3間券商預測匯控今年首季列賬基準稅前利潤料介乎90.76億至96.93億美元,較2022年首季41.66億美元,按年上升117.9%至132.7%。市場將關注匯控最新營運指引、聚焦會否復派季息及股份回購的指引。
美銀證券上周發表報告,料匯控今年首季列賬基準稅前溢利按年升1.33倍至97億美元,其中20億美元來自法國零售業務押後出售所帶來的減值回撥,額外10億美元來自收購矽谷銀行英國帶來的公平值調整淨利潤。扣除相關一次性因素後,該行料匯控首季列賬基準稅前溢利按年升61%至67億美元。此外,該行料匯控首季列賬基準收入按年升31%至163億美元,其中淨利息收入為90.1億美元。該行亦預計匯控2023年至2024年對股東回報(包括股息、特別息及股份回購)將為300億美元。
【受惠售法業務 聚焦復派季息】
摩根士丹利預測匯控首季列賬基準稅前溢利按年升1.22倍至92.36億美元,其中匯控首季普通股權一級資本比率將略高於13.5%至14.5%區間,受惠於擬售法國業務撥備的回撥,並於首季恢復季度派息,以及開始股份回購。該行料匯控今年股份回購規模30億美元,當中10億美元在5月公布業績時一併宣布。此外,匯控亦已表明希望在完成加拿大業務出售後,明年派發每股21美仙的特別股息。該行推算匯控未來一年將向股東回報12%市值,又預期匯控2024年及2025年將再作80億美元股份回購。
摩根大通預測,匯控首季列賬基準稅前利潤按年升1.18倍至90.76億美元,料經調整稅前利潤及經調整收入按年升50%及26%,各至70.76億及158億美元。該行料匯控今明兩年的派息及股份回購,相等於其市值兩成,但預期派息及股份回購上望空間有限,基於不利宏觀狀況及利率周期。該行又指,預計美聯儲及英倫銀行下半年停止加息及明年開始減息,每減息25子意味匯控稅前溢利減少3.2%,存款貝塔(beta)上升亦可能為淨息差構成額外下行壓力。此外,除香港市場外,匯控主要市場的經濟增長減速,匯控內地商業房地產撥備低於同業,有進一步上升風險。
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本網綜合3間券商預測匯控今年首季列賬基準稅前利潤料介乎90.76億至96.93億美元,較2022年首季41.66億美元,按年上升117.9%至132.7%。
券商│今年首季列賬基準稅前利潤預測│按年變幅
美銀證券│96.93億美元│+132.7%
摩根士丹利│92.36億美元│+121.7%
摩根大通│90.76億美元│+117.9%
按匯控2022年首季列賬基準稅前利潤41.66億美元計
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