CPI之夜將迎來大考！
美股投資者將密切關注今晚公佈的CPI通脹數據，這是美聯儲下次政策會議前公佈的最後一個關鍵數據之一。
上週五公佈的3月就業數據表明就業市場強勁，提高了五月再次加息25個基點的可能性。
根據經濟學家的調查，3月CPI料將同比增長5.2%，與前值6%相比有所放緩。Mott Capital Management的創始人Kramer表示：
“總體通脹符合預期或略低於預期影響都不大。上週五就業數據公佈以前，美聯儲加息的概率已經從50%左右提高到70%。”
他補充道美聯儲很可能在5月加息25個基點左右，只要通脹不出現大變動，美聯儲就會把利率提至5%以上，“因爲通脹仍然過熱”。
核心CPI預計環比增長0.4%，同比增長5.6%。如果符合預期，這將是9月以來首次出現環比增速超過前值，也是自2021年初以來核心通脹首次超過整體通脹。
週五公佈的3月份就業數據表現強勁，美國失業率處於歷史低位，工資不斷上升，聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC）再次加息的預期更站得住腳。Kramer在週日的一份報告中說：
“基於股市3月中旬開始反彈，以及科技股和對利率敏感的納指表現強勁，美股已經定價美聯儲暫停加息和降息。但三月通脹數據公佈可能打破近期美股的反彈勢頭。”
Kramer說，如果經濟數據讓美聯儲有理由在5月再度加息，並在2023年底前不降息，那麼最近大盤股和成長股的反彈可能是“過度的，必須調整的”。
上週，成長股的漲勢已經開始消退。因爲擔憂經濟衰退，納指一週表現錄得四個星期來首次下跌。 然而，花旗銀行的經濟學家表示，一旦證實通脹尚未降溫，投資者可能要推遲定價2023年下半年大幅降息。
花旗經濟學家Veronica Clark和Andrew Hollenhorst在週一的報告中寫道：
“即便通脹數據強勁，市場也可能繼續定價美聯儲在今年末降息，只有見證連續幾周穩健的商業活動和強勁的通脹數據之後，投資者纔會改變態度”。
因經濟數據疲軟，過去一週美債收益率走低，債市對通脹意外降溫更敏感。Clark和Hollenhorst表示：“儘管如此，核心通脹上升仍會引起美債收益率大幅走高，尤其在3月就業數據依然穩健的情況下。”
聯合信貸銀行的外匯策略師Roberto Mialich表示，在外匯市場上，如果市場降低美聯儲的降息預期，核心通脹沒有如期快速降溫，將爲美元提供“短暫的喘息機會”。 Mialich認爲：
“美國和世界其他國家之間的利差料將進一步收緊，因此美元未來走低的預期不改。”
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