《大行報告》匯豐研究上調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至139元 評級「買入」
匯豐環球研究發表報告指,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)3月下半個月GMV錄得強勁增長,部分是受惠於低基數,但考慮到消費市場復甦可能需要更長時間才出現更明顯改善,同時預期直銷零售及雲計算業務未來增長將較保守,因此將2024年核心業務客戶管理收入(CMR)預測下調,並將2024至2025年收入預測削減約3%。
阿里早前公布業務重組為六大板塊,該行認為重組工作會產生積極影響,有助維持業務盈利能力,因此維持2024至2025年盈利預測不變,計及人民幣升值預測的因素,該行將阿里巴巴目標價從135元上調至139元,維持「買入」評級。
市場推測阿里最有可能首先分拆的將是物流業務菜鳥網絡,料最快今年底在港進行首次公開發售,集團亦承認菜鳥目前股權結構符合條件,因此看起來是準備最有資格分拆的業務之一。在國際商業復甦和消費物流的新興貢獻的推動下,該行預測菜鳥2024年收入將增長22%,利潤率則預期保持在-1%至0%的範圍內。
匯豐研究又預測,阿里巴巴截至今年3月底止第四季收入將按年增長2%,經調整EBITDA料增長41%,經調整EBITDA利潤率料達11%。(gc/w)
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