惠譽:京東(09618.HK)推百億補貼或引發線上零售龍頭企業短期價格戰
評級機構惠譽基準情形預計,今年線上商品零售滲透率將大致保持在30%左右。隨著線上零售業吸引更多入局者且行業格局日趨分散,個別公司的營收增速可能放緩。經營環境競爭加劇或將擴大市場份額爭奪戰中輸贏兩方之間的差距。行業現有企業維護或擴大市場份額的能力是惠譽評估其業務狀況乃至信用狀況的關鍵因素之一。
惠譽指,京東(09618.HK)近期通過發放高額補貼加大了推廣力度,目的是加強引流及提升市場地位。此舉或引發線上零售龍頭企業之間的價格戰,但可能只會持續較短時間,因為補貼可能會在幾個月內耗盡。競爭加劇背景下,經營策略效益較弱的電商企業或將面臨市場份額受侵蝕的風險。
惠譽提到,抖音作為TikTok中國版營運商,計劃依托通過旗下領先社交和流媒體平台的海量流量入口進軍即時餐飲配送市場。對美團(03690.HK)以及阿里巴巴(09988.HK)旗下的餓了麼等佔據行業主導地位的現有企業帶來不確定性,並對外賣行業近年來基本保持穩定的競爭格局構成一定的沖擊。
不過,惠譽認為,美團和阿里巴巴已建立起廣泛且可靠的外賣騎手和商戶網絡,這為其捍衛市場地位奠定了重要優勢。這兩家企業的外賣板塊目前產生的利潤率水平相對較低,但該板塊與各自企業其他業務部門之間具有較強的協同效應。美團與阿里巴巴的生態系統功能廣泛,使用戶能夠方便地獲得多種消費者服務,進而為客戶帶來良好體驗並提升客戶忠誠度。這為兩家企業在競爭加劇背景下維護市場地位提供了競爭優勢。
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