《大行報告》中金:阿里-SW(09988.HK)核心業務完全修復需時 料本財季利潤端或低預期
中金公司發表研究報告指,阿里-SW(09988.HK)2023財年第三季收入按年增2%至2,478億元人民幣(下同),符合市場預期;經調整EBITA按年增16%至520億元,非通用純利503億元,兩者均高於市場預期13.3%。
該行認為,阿里競爭對手的補貼行為或短期對行業格局產生擾動,且消費復甦進展有待觀察,預計2023財年第四季的客戶管理收入按年下滑5%。不過,長遠電商競爭力是商業機制、技術和用戶體驗的綜合,集團在電商生態、技術實力和用戶體驗上具備領先優勢,續相信集團的核心電商業務將受惠於宏觀和消費大盤持續復甦,惟完全修復需時。該行預計集團的國際商業收入有望維持復甦態勢,認為阿里雲後續目標追求安全可靠、繁榮技術和產業生態、協同合作夥伴提供智能化解決方案、形成全鏈路服務。此外,雖然短期收入增速難有顯著提升,但作為AI底層算力的支撐,AIGC若得到實踐應用則有望成為推動雲計算增長的引擎。
該行預計集團2023財年第四季的經調整EBITA按年增長36%至215億元,主要受惠於去年同期新業務虧損較大的低基數,但利潤端或低於早前預期,因為部分被集團持續投入淘寶天貓,聚焦技術和內容改善用戶體驗,以及戰略性投入國際業務所抵銷。該行考慮到公司將持續進行戰略投入以維持市場份額,下調其2024財年非通用會計準則歸母淨利潤2%至1,586億元,續予「跑贏大市」評級,維持美股和港股目標價140美元和137港元。
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