Wolfe Research:中期前景仍然看跌
進入2023年之後,美股走勢喜人。迄今爲止,標普500指數上漲了4.6%,納斯達克100指數上漲了9%。不過,Wolfe Research認爲,中期股市前景仍然看跌。該公司表示,股市中的投機行爲再度流行,但看空股市的理由依然存在。
Wolfe Research的首席投資策略師Chris Senyek表示:“儘管一些短期技術面目前處於‘超買’區域,但鑑於近期漲勢背後的強勁動能,我們不會對近期可能出現的更多上漲感到意外。”他補充稱:“我們將最新一輪的上漲歸因於市場對美國經濟實現軟着陸、以及美聯儲將開啓一個漫長的降息週期的預期升溫。然而,由於美聯儲仍然非常擔心類似上世紀70年代的頑固的通脹,我們看到了兩條潛在的路徑,一個是經濟將實現軟着陸、但美聯儲將加息至5%以上並至少保持到2024年,另一個是美聯儲今年最終會降息,但這是因爲美國經濟走向深度衰退。不管是哪一種,股市的表現都可能會讓人大失所望。”
Chris Senyek表示:“美股投機性最強的領域也出現了嚴重的‘超買’狀態,這是市場預計美聯儲將在今年晚些時候迅速大幅逆轉貨幣政策的又一個強烈跡象。”他指出,如果美國陷入比預期更嚴重的衰退,“未來企業盈利下滑的可能性會大得多。”他表示:“雖然科技股和銀行股的每股收益前景有着很大的阻力,但我們認爲,這兩個領域的收益仍然具有很強的週期性。”
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