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拼多多貨幣化率和利潤率可以超過淘系電商嗎?

來源:招商證券

本文將拼多多(電商主站)與阿裏(淘系電商)的貨幣化率和盈利能力(淨利潤/GMV)進行對比。

貨幣化率方面,招商證券認爲拼多多在品牌結構方面具備更強貨幣化率,阿裏在品類結構、流量權重方面具備更強貨幣化率;報表淨利率方面,阿裏同等流量規模下產生的廣告收入更高規模效應強,但拼多多員工效率更高或可彌補劣勢。因此從定性角度判斷,阿裏盈利能力並非拼多多的天花板,拼多多近期財報較高的貨幣化率和利潤率具備持續性的基礎。

廣告貨幣化率:拼多多與阿裏各有優劣勢,阿裏並非拼多多的天花板

阿裏作爲電商平臺貨幣化能力的標杆具有較強的參考價值,截至2021財年阿裏貨幣化率爲4.06%,居行業領先。我們從品牌結構、品類結構、平臺流量權重三個層面進行對比。

品牌結構方面,阿裏頭部品牌佔比更高,頭部品牌雖然GMV和廣告支出的絕對值高,但通常可以憑藉消費者心智與平臺傾斜獲得較多的免費流量,貨幣化率層面整體低於中小品牌,因此中小品牌商戶佔比更高的拼多多貨幣化率更有優勢;

品類結構方面,阿裏以服裝、美容個護爲核心優勢類目,拼多多以生鮮爲核心類目。品類結構差異影響貨幣化率,天貓優勢品類毛利率更高盈利能力更強,銷售費用率預算高,因此貨幣化率更佔優勢。

流量分配規則上,拼多多通過給予商品價格更高權重實現商品低價,一定程度犧牲貨幣化能力,因此阿裏貨幣化率更有優勢。

整體看,拼多多和阿裏的貨幣化能力的對比中各有優劣勢,得益於更高的中小品牌商戶佔比,拼多多廣告貨幣化率具備超過阿裏的可能性,阿裏並非拼多多的天花板。

傭金貨幣化率:拼多多對比阿裏有較大距離

拼多多目前僅對百億補貼商品及特定類目進行抽傭,而阿裏天貓對絕大多數品類收取傭金。整體來看,拼多多當前傭金貨幣化率處於較低水平,相比阿裏有較大差距,若未來品牌化取得較大進展,或將帶動整體抽傭水平逐步提升。

報表淨利率:阿裏規模效應強,但拼多多運營效率高或可彌補劣勢

毛利率方面,阿裏和拼多多均爲平臺模式,雙方目前已基本接近。

費用率方面,相近的流量大盤下阿裏電商廣告收入規模更大,攤至費用率上相比拼多多存在明顯優勢,但拼多多員工運營效率與人均產出更高,或可彌補差距。

總體而言,拼多多當前銷售費用率仍有優化空間,且管理費用率相比阿裏更具優勢,目前淨利率水平具備合理性與可持續性,遠期看淨利率有望繼續接近甚至趕超阿裏。

投資建議:

拼多多近兩個季度較高的貨幣化率和盈利能力具備持續性的基礎,招商證券維持強烈推薦。公司主站盈利能力持續提升,新業務發展前景廣闊,目前公司成長性與盈利能力仍被市場明顯低估,該機構預測拼多多2022-2024年NON-GAAP歸母淨利潤分別爲497.34億、650.74億、866.76億元,給予2023年25倍PE,上調目標價至141.6美元,維持「強烈推薦」評級。

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