美聯儲“鷹氣”或已見頂
美聯儲收緊政策正在增加家庭的利率負擔,導致它們在疫情期間積累的超額儲蓄迅速減少,並凸顯美聯儲的鷹派加息可能已經見頂。疫情期間,需求崩潰疊加政府鉅額轉移支付,導致美國家庭到2021年中的超額儲蓄達到了2.3萬億美元。
但盛宴之後是饑荒,隨着通脹導致價格和利率上升,超額的儲蓄正在迅速減少。它們起到了緩衝經濟衰退的作用,因爲它們抑制了支出下降的反饋循環。
美國商務部經濟分析局將儲蓄流量定義爲個人可支配收入-消費-其他支出。在疫情最嚴重的時候,美國的儲蓄率高達33%,但此後跌至接近歷史最低點的3.1%。
根據30年趨勢線,超額可支配收入又回到了平穩狀態,這表明超額收入不再支持超額儲蓄,因爲人們的支出增加了,而政府停止了與疫情相關的轉移支付。

不斷增加的債務償還對儲蓄造成了越來越大的壓力。CPI和抵押貸款利率都在上升。償債率(債務償還佔可支配收入的百分比)仍然相對較低,不過也在上升。隨着債務調整爲更高的利率,償債率可能會快速上升。
按名義價格計算,美國家庭每年需要償還大約1.75萬億美元,幾乎佔可支配收入的10%。隨着越來越多的收入被上漲的價格吞噬,這種負擔將變得更大。

美聯儲估計,超額儲蓄已減少至1.7萬億美元(截至2022年中),一年內下降26%。隨着利率上升的滯後效應產生影響,超額儲蓄量可能會以更快的速度下降。

衰退緩衝正在消失,美國經濟將處於更加脆弱的境地,同時增加了美聯儲鷹派加息達到峯頂的可能性。
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