《大行報告》高盛下調阿里-SW(09988.HK)目標價至130元 評級「買入」
高盛發表研報指,阿里-SW(09988.HK)截至9月底止第二財季業績穩固,並將其股份回購計劃規模從最初的250億美元額外增加150億美元,同時宣布延遲在香港轉換成雙重主要上市的時間表。
報告指,由於短期宏觀經濟及疫情對消費需求構成不確定性,阿里核心CMR業務收入的降幅超出預期。但高盛指,阿里期內EBITA按年增長29%,顯示出阿里未來兩至三個季度在中國商業和其他業務領域的發展仍可得到支持。
考慮到GMV及CMR增長前景放緩,高盛預測2023財年第三季阿里收入將按年增長1%,GMV及CMR分別下跌5%及9%,季度EBITA增長持平,預計中國商業GMV及CMR至明年6月底止季度將恢復正增長,隨著防疫政策逐步放寬,GMV及CMR之間的差距最終會縮小及恢復正常化發展。
在應對中國電商行業競爭加劇、國際商務業務增長以及雲計算領域領先地位方面,高盛仍然看好阿里的多元發展模式,將2023至2025財年收入預測下調1%,經調整淨利潤預測下調介乎1%至3%;並預期2023財年收入將增長3%,維持「買入」評級,H股目標價從134元下調至130元。
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