交銀國際料內地電商平台估值回升機會率大 指「雙11」回歸經營效率
內地科網股今早抽上,京東-SW(09618.HK)股價搶高6.8%報214.4元,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)最新報78.9元上揚11.1%,快手-W(01024.HK)抽升12.7%,騰訊(00700.HK)及美團(03690.HK)股價各升9.6%及7.8%。
交銀國際發表報告表示,內地電商平台淡化「雙11」的GMV(商品成交總額),企業回歸經營效率,而天貓服飾、美妝、手機疲弱、家電穩定,和618趨勢一致;抖音鞋服、美妝增速較618放緩,商家多平台佈局的紅利減少,指家電、食品仍有機會。
該行指,淘寶直播內容分發機制向抖音靠攏,引入抖音頭部主播,但跨平台經驗複製還需要時間和平台磨合。淘寶直播扶持中腰部主播和店播,店播比例提升至80%。電商滲透率接近飽和,平台GMV增速放緩,將回歸商業本質為商家帶來有質量增長,指直播電商仍在紅利期,但部分品類已經結束爆發增長,預計2025年直播電商佔電商大盤滲透率接近30%的時候行業進入存量競爭,考驗平台利用窗口期補齊用戶心智、平台供給和服務體系完善的能力。
交銀國際指,內地電商平台目前估值處於歷史低位,隨著經濟恢復信號逐漸確立,對標傳統零售行業,預計電商公司估值回升的機會率大。
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