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《大行報告》中金展望明年A股或好於港股 內地核心問題是如何激發增長預期
阿思達克 11-15 11:22
中金發表海外市場明年展望報告表示,2023年的走向關鍵在中美,中美解決各自約束的程度和先後順序將決定未來出路和配置方向的三種路徑,在基準路徑:美國先解決通脹和緊縮約束,明年上半年逐步緩解、美債利率明顯下行,中國政策調整還需要時間並延續弱復甦格局;此時可以類比2019年邏輯,美債、黃金和美股成長股依次迎來配置時機;但美元維持強勢,新興市場仍有壓力,A股整體或好於港股、結構行情繼續。 若是悲觀路徑,美國高通脹持續更久甚至再度失控、中國政策優化後置短期增長壓力增加;美股和美債都有進一步壓力,美元流動性收緊,進而導致全球高槓桿下的「灰犀牛」風險逐步暴露;美元強、新興承壓,A股好於港股,結構性行情繼續、中國債券則因政策對衝或還有一定空間。 若是樂觀路徑,中國政策優化發力前置引領全球增長修復,此時可類比2017年邏輯;新興市場特別是是港股領先、人民幣企穩甚至走強、美元逐漸趨弱、全球風險偏好改善。 中金指,中國並不面臨歐美的高通脹和緊縮約束,但問題是投資回報率降得比融資成本更快,進而導致持續寬鬆的流動性無法傳導到信用擴張和主體消費與投資意願。中國目前通脹水平處於相對低位,其背後主要原因為局部疫情反覆拖累需求下滑。在此背景下,內地政策和流動性疫情後持續維持寬鬆,2020年以來準備金利率、LPR及MLF等關鍵利率均多次下調,帶動融資成本不斷下行。然而,局部疫情反覆和近期地產信用風險拖累內地經濟修復,因此投資回報率回落且快於融資成本。 對應到資產表現上,2021年3月以來中國維持在成長股跑贏階段,成長股相對較高的收益一定程度補償了回落較快的投資回報率。由於增長弱復甦且修復慢於預期,資產輪動周期一直未能轉向下一階段,若後續政策發力支撐增長向好,周期、大宗商品等將迎來配置機會。當前的核心問題是如何激發增長預期,將流動性轉化為增長。後續關鍵在於如何提振信心,進而改善居民端融資需求以帶動主體投資意願。
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