《大行報告》大和下調阿裏-SW(09988.HK)目標價至130元 評級「買入」
大和發表研究報告指,預計阿裏巴巴(09988.HK)的客戶管理收入(CMR)與網站成交金額(GMV)之間的差距將會收窄,並關注其業務上的效率提升,該行重申集團「買入」評級,目標價由150元下調至130元,主要反映匯率變動。2023財年盈測下調7%,反映較低中國商貿利潤。
大和表示,雖然9月GMV優於8月,但部分地區重新封城,導致復甦比預期慢。該行料集團2023財年第二季的CMR將按年下降2%。隨着訂單取消的影響逐漸減弱,CMR和GMV之間的差距或會自2023財年第二季度起收窄,並預計2023財年第二季中國商貿EBITA利潤率爲31%,高於2022財年第二季度的30%。
該行認爲,在2023財年第三季度,清零政策有所放寬,可能會恢復消費者對非必需品的信心。該行預計2023財年第二季度的雲收入將按年增長2%,預計期內雲EBITA利潤率爲1.4%。該行認爲,宏觀復甦將有助於推動雲收入的重新加速。
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