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《大行報告》匯豐研究:英債務未來一年將惡化 政策選項不甚佳 英鎊或持久疲弱
就英國政府上週五出臺激進的減稅方案後,匯豐環球研究近日發表題爲「結構性痛心(Structural sorrow)」的英鎊報告表示,近期英鎊匯價急跌,顯示市場對英國面臨更廣泛的赤字和更大的債務負擔,或需外資流入進行融資的憂慮,這可能令英鎊需要進一步調整。 根據匯豐經濟研究的初步預測,英國在相對債務方面未來一年動態將惡化。只有美元和日圓的債務負擔更大,沒有任何經濟體的債務增長速度如此之快。美元爲避風港和儲備貨幣需求,日圓則有大量國內儲蓄支持,惟英鎊不享有任何過高匯率的特權。 該行指,英國不斷擴大的核心外部赤字需要更多的短期資本流入,才能使英鎊保持平穩。如果外國投資者擔心英國將以通貨膨脹或外匯貶值來抵銷不可持續的債務負擔,相關外國投資者於開始之時已不願意爲英國進行融資,令貨幣估值可能越來越弱。 匯豐研究指,英鎊兌美元今年迄今已下跌近20%,在英國通脹接近10%下,對於擁有1,800億美元總儲備的英國政府和擁有125億美元的英倫銀行來說,料英鎊進行外匯幹預不太可能成爲下一步選項。該行認爲首先行動的門檻很高。自1992年政策制定者努力將英鎊留在歐洲匯率機制中以來,沒有進行過外匯幹預。其次,英鎊是否對英倫銀行的通脹目標構成如此明顯和當前的危險,是否值得採取此類行動現尚未清楚。 該行亦懷疑英國若進行外匯幹預是否有效,特別是在非常短期內。與外匯市場交易量相比,指英央行的儲備規模微不足道。英倫銀行今年4月的外匯交易量調查顯示,英鎊兌美元交易量4,320億美元。參考日本央行在9月22日進行外匯幹預,確實使日圓從當日的低點到高點上漲了約4%,但自那次行動以來日圓再次走弱。 匯豐研究認爲短期英國即使作外匯幹預,亦無助於改變上述結構性失衡,更顯着和激進程度的加息可能有助於遏制前面提到的外部失衡,但代價是衰退比目前預測的要嚴重得多。市場亦已經對英國未來大幅加息做好準備,指英政策選項並不令人滿意,結果可能是英鎊更持久的疲弱。
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