全球TOP20基金二季度如何配置中國?
截至9月中下旬,海外基金公司二季度持倉數據基本披露完畢。根據我們對持有中國股票的20家TOP基金公司的前20大重倉股的統計分析,22Q2海外主要基金對中國股票重倉持股環比提升6.5%至3715億美元,二季度國內局部疫情逐步得到控制,穩增長、疫後紓困等政策頻出背景下海外主要基金對中資股配置偏好有所回暖。分行業看,二季度新增資金的主要配置方向爲受益疫後復甦的大消費、受益風險偏好持續回升的互聯網龍頭,以及賽道高景氣的新能源車板塊;而能源、銀行板塊則普遍遭減持。個股層面上,剔除股價影響,優質互聯網龍頭$阿裏巴巴-SW(09988.HK)$、$京東集團-SW(09618.HK)$以及新能源汽車板塊的$理想汽車-W(02015.HK)$、$比亞迪股份(01211.HK)$等獲海外主流機構增配。
來源:中信證券研究
22Q2海外主要基金對中資股配置小幅提升。
根據我們對持有中國股票規模20大基金公司的前20大重倉股的統計分析,22Q2樣本基金公司對中國股票前20大重倉持股規模合計爲3715億美元,環比22Q1提升(6.5%QoQ)。從股票持倉的市場分佈來看,一季度海外主要共同基金公司在美股/港股/A股的重倉持倉金額分別爲791.6/2505.4/414.1億美元,環比分別提升89.5/148.3/16.0億美元。二季度國內局部疫情逐步得到控制,穩增長、疫後紓困等政策頻出,市場預期基本面將觸底反彈,帶動海外主要基金對中資股配置環比回升。Q2美股重倉持股佔比提升1.2PCTs至21.3%,而A股和港股重倉持股金額分別環比下降0.3/0.2PCTs至11.1%/67.4%。
海外基金全面增持中資股大消費板塊。
二季度國內局部疫情逐步得到控制,穩增長政策發力帶動投資者持續增配大消費及疫後復甦相關板塊,如可選消費、必選消費、工業(運輸和汽車)板塊重倉持股金額顯著提升16.8%/9.8%/22.5%至1395.4/208.9/72.4億美元。而受地產相關風險拖累的金融(主要是銀行)板塊則遭減持,重倉持股金額下滑5.6%至631.4億美元。另外,隨着油價觸頂回落,上遊能源、原材料等板塊亦遭海外基金減持,重倉持股金額分別下滑13.5%/2.0%。二級行業層面上,大消費板塊普遍獲增持,汽車與汽車零部件、耐用消費品與服裝、消費者服務、零售業板塊重倉持股金額分別增長42.5%/32.1%/13.5% /11.2%至187.3/146.2 143.8/918.1億美元。
個股層面,疫後復甦、互聯網龍頭、新能源汽車等主線獲青睞;而能源、銀行板塊遭減持。
二季度國內局部疫情狀況緩和使得外資顯著增配如社服、運輸等疫後復甦板塊,$中國中免(01880.HK)$、$華住(HTHT.US)$、$百勝中國(YUMC.US)$重倉持股金額分別提升36.4%/17.2%12.4%。另外,市場情緒回暖也帶動海外基金普遍增配互聯網龍頭企業,$京東(JD.US)$、$拼多多(PDD.US)$、$百度集團-SW(09888.HK)$重倉持股金額分別增加26.4%/67.0%/118.3%。另外,高景氣的新能源汽車賽道也持續獲海外基金青睞,$比亞迪股份(01211.HK)$、$理想汽車-W(02015.HK)$重倉持股金額分別增加達77.2%和316.4%。而油價觸頂回落使得海外投資者普遍減持能源板塊企業,如中石油、中石化等油企龍頭重倉持股金額分別下滑8.9%和10.9%;另外,受地產相關風險拖累的銀行板塊亦普遍遭海外基金減持,建設銀行、招商銀行、交通銀行重倉持股金額分別下滑17.1%/14.9%/11.8%。
二季度主流機構增持新能源車龍頭企業,互聯網板塊配置分化。
選取十家市場較爲關注的主動管理型基金探究其二季度持倉變化,繼一季度新能源車受到主流機構大幅減配後,二季度再受主流機構增持,其中$蔚來-SW(09866.HK)$、$理想汽車-W(02015.HK)$、$小鵬汽車-W(09868.HK)$分別受到6家、2家和1家機構家增配。互聯網企業中$阿裏巴巴(BABA.US)$、$京東(JD.US)$、$滿幫(YMM.US)$獲青睞,而BOSS直聘、愛奇藝則遭較多機構減持。
風險因素:全球新冠疫情蔓延超預期;宏觀經濟修復不及預期;中美關係惡化;外資持續流出。
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