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《大行報告》中金:不排除港銀提早加息 因聯儲局激進加息、內地經濟放緩令資金更快外流
中金發表報告表示,香港銀行通常在港幣流動性壓力較大時上調最優貸款利率,如總結餘明顯下降(如低於1,500億港元)和港元銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)快速上升。參考美聯儲2015年至2018年加息周期經驗,香港銀行總結餘在2018年8月降至1,000億港元以下,1個月HIBOR利率由0.2%升至2%,匯豐銀行因此在2018年9月底上調最優惠貸款利率12.5個基點至5.125%。 對比當前,2022年3月美聯儲加息以來,本港銀行體系總結餘由2022年初的近3,600億港元降至最新不足1,250億港元,1個月HIBOR由0.25%升至1.85%附近,還不像2018年時那麼緊張。不過,由於此輪美聯儲加息更為激進,疊加香港和內地經濟有所增速放緩,總結餘回落和資金外流更快(Hibor-美元OIS(Overnight Indexed Swaps)仍明顯倒掛),因此該行不排除香港銀行更早加息以應對潛在壓力。 該行指,港銀若上調最優貸款利率的影響,或邊際增加銀行成本、推升按揭利率、但料對整體市場金融條件的增量影響有限。中金認為未來上調最優貸款利率,可能會邊際增加銀行成本、推升房地產按揭利率;但由於最優貸款利率上調滯後於已經走高的資金利率,因此對港股整體的金融條件的增量影響有限。因此結果上,加息可能對香港銀行的利潤偏負面、增加香港房地產市場和房價壓力(上輪加息周期香港地產價格累計下跌約8.4%),但對整體港股流動性邊際增量影響有限。 該行基於資本資產定價模型(CAPM)模型回溯測算2004年以來9次最優貸款利率上調前後港股和板塊超額收益變化,得出類似的結果,即港股在加息前後並沒有顯著的變化;金融板塊加息前開始轉弱,地產板塊同樣如此,但加息後逐步修復。 中金回顧2005年和2018年兩輪香港上調最優貸款利率的歷史經驗後發現,除了同樣對銀行和地產板塊帶來因流動性收緊的壓力外,整體市場和資金流向卻大相徑庭(2005年市場表現更為強勁、資金流入;2018年港股表現疲弱、資金流出),這背後與中國增長的基本面環境差異更加相關,這也是決定市場(特別是中資股)中期走勢的關鍵。
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