《即日市評》港股回吐退守兩萬大關 成交三個月最少 阿里走弱
恆指「三連升」累漲512點或2.6%後,今日受科網股拖累向下。美國上周五公布月非農就業新增職位52.8萬個,遠多過市場原預期的25萬個,市場關注美聯儲局未來加息步伐,美股道指及納指上周五各升0.2%及跌0.5%;執筆之時美國十年期國債孳息率升至2.802厘,美匯指數升至106.47,美股道指期貨最新升58點或0.2%,納指期貨最新升0.4%。內地7月美元計出口按年增18%勝預期,人民幣即期收跌95點報6.7602兌一美元。上證綜指今日升9點或0.3%收3,236點,深證成指升近0.3%,滬深兩市成交額共9,526億人民幣。
恆指低開136點後反覆,早市跌幅一度收窄至30點,午後曾跌247點低見19,954點,全日跌156點或0.77%,收20,045點;國指跌80點或1.17%,收6,821點;恆生科技指數跌80點或1.82%,收4,335點。大市全日成交總額749.26億元,為5月初以來最低。滬、深港通南下交易分別淨流入4.25億及4.48億元人民幣。
港府公布本周五起,海外及台灣經機場抵港人士的「3+4」(7日酒店檢疫期縮短為3日,隨後4天進行醫學監察),國泰航空(00293.HK)股價漲1.4%收8.59元。而碧桂園(02007.HK)股價挫6.6%收2.53元再創新低。
【國泰有支持 阿里巴巴挫】
科網股造淡,騰訊(00700.HK)及美團(03690.HK)股價下滑2.7%及2.1%,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股價走低4.4%收88.8元。國泰君安發表報告稱,阿里巴巴首財季收入及業績表現超預期,但考慮到疫情衝擊,導致消費需求低迷影響,預計公司於2023財年、2024財年及2025財年歸母淨利潤預測為987億、1,193億及1,421億元人民幣,維持目標價140.74元港元及「增持」評級,關注公司存量挖潛和效率提升 。
該行指阿里巴巴競爭加劇,流量分化的背景下,格局分化的趨勢短期難以逆轉,阿里核心電商的增速和盈利表現很大程度上與線上零售大盤相關;精益增長背後是經濟周期和監管規範化制度化的影響;對長期價值不明朗業務投入的放緩,以提升對利潤率和增長質素的要求成為共識;降本增效也成為關注重點,投入將繼續從營銷向基礎設施轉變。
此外,阿里巴巴主要股東軟銀集團公布,4至6月的首財季錄得3.16萬億日圓淨虧損,折合約234億美元,較上一季2.1萬億日圓虧損擴大,是連續兩季見紅兼破記錄虧損。
【市寬呈轉弱 兗礦能源揚】
港股今日市寬轉弱,主板股票升跌比率16為21(上日為27比13);恆指成份股今日29隻股份上升,下跌股份38隻,升跌比率為42比55(上日為71比23)。大市今日錄沽空123.47億元,佔可沽空股份成交額597.48億元的20.666%(上日為19.322%)。
兗礦能源(01171.HK)股價抽升近5.3%收25.9元,華能(00902.HK)股價漲1.7%,華電國際(01071.HK)揚5.1%。據《人民日報》發布「用電高峰,保供持續發力」文章提到,中國電力企業聯合會有關負責人表示,今年以來電煤市場價格整體前漲後穩,持續在高位震盪,大型發電集團到場標煤單價按年上漲34.5%,仍有超過一半以上的煤電企業處於虧損狀態,部分企業現金流緊張。建議切實有效增加電煤有效供應、強化中長期合同機制的同時,完善相關政策支持煤電企業紓困。
利福(01212.HK)獲主席劉鑾鴻建議私有化,全日股價飆升50.3%收4.63元。花旗發表報告指,以每股5元的價格進行私有化,較該行早前目標價高10%,相信對股價表現將帶來正面驚喜。考慮到股份流動性疲弱,表明投資者興趣顯著下降,加上疫情下及內地與香港邊境關閉後估值低迷,認為私有化為合理的行動。該行提到,私有化價格上限較過去180日股價高出30%至80%,相信有助於提振市場情況,給予目標價4.5元,評級「買入」。
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