國泰君安:阿里(09988.HK)電商競爭及分化趨勢短期難逆轉 關注存量挖潛及效率提升
國泰君安發表報告,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)首財季收入及業績表現超預期,但考慮疫情衝擊消費需求低迷影響,預計公司於2023財年、2024財年及2025財年歸母淨利潤預測為987億、1,193億及1,421億元人民幣,維持目標價140.74元港元及「增持」評級,指關注公司存量挖潛和效率提升 。
該行指阿里巴巴精益增長與降本增效推進堅定,料拐點將來自幾方面。第一是降本增效與保持增長的平衡主要依賴於淘系多年來建立起的消費者心智,同時公司直營和本地生活業務也將更加專注重點區域佈局,合理配置資源;第二是雲計算於本季增速進一步放緩至10%,行業調整、龍頭客戶及疫情三因素皆有,近期政策和監管對阿里雲客戶拓展構成實質性影響,後續增速的拐點不僅依靠經濟復甦,監管政策的落地亦是必要條件。
第三在是競爭加劇,流量分化的背景下,格局分化的趨勢短期難以逆轉,阿里核心電商的增速和盈利表現很大程度上與線上零售大盤相關;精益增長背後是經濟周期和監管規範化制度化的影響;對長期價值不明朗業務投入的放緩,以提升對利潤率和增長質素的要求成為共識;降本增效也成為關注重點,投入將繼續從營銷向基礎設施轉變。
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