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《大行報告》大摩:阿里(BABA.US)估值吸引 盈利下調風險有限
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指出,阿里(BABA.US)正在復甦,但由於宏觀環境,令復甦軌跡不確定。不過,公司對提升業務效率的重視及執行力,相信有助盈利能力好轉。 該行認為,阿里7月的商品交易總額與6月相比有所復甦,多個產品類別恢復增長,無視6月下旬促銷後的疲弱。8及9月勢頭能否持續,則要視乎宏觀的復甦程度,惟目前可見性較低。該行預測第二季的商品交易總額按年增長1%。 此外,該行指阿里首財季的經調整EBITA較該行預測高出22%,幾乎各業務都好過預期。展望全年,相信與第二季表現相似,而2023財年餘下時間,公司收入較盈利所面臨的不確定性較大,料內地商務及本地服務將受疫情相關的中斷影響,而國際商務受通脹及地緣政治影響,至於雲業務受宏觀對資訊科技預算影響,但預期阿里於削減成本的執行力,可為公司2023財年實現健康的盈利增長。 摩根士丹利對阿里2023財年的收入預測按年下調2%至5%,但將EBITA預測上調2%至8%。儘管面對不利因素,阿里已證明有能力連續兩個季度削減成本,以及強調業務效率,盈利下調風險有限,現價相當於2023財年市盈率12倍,估值吸引。目標價140美元,維持「增持」評級。
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