美國大通脹如何收場？
新冠疫情期間，美國政府採取了極度寬鬆的財政貨幣政策，美國居民消費需求迅速反彈，而疫情防控、俄烏衝突擾亂正常的生產供應，供需因素共同推動美國CPI增速不斷攀升，2022年6月同比增速升至9.1%，創1981年11月以來新高。
爲遏制通脹，美聯儲自2022年3月份以來已經多次加息並開始縮表。美國本輪大通脹最終會如何收場？和1970年代有哪些相同和不同之處？對資產價格有哪些影響？
1970年代美國大通脹的形成主要有三方面原因：美聯儲拒絕承擔物價穩定職責，寬鬆貨幣政策助推通脹；兩次石油衝擊疊加價格管制，加劇供應約束；美國財政赤字規模不斷擴大，聯邦政府試圖利用通脹稅彌補赤字。最終沃爾克通過大幅加息，以高失業率爲代價解決了通脹問題。
大通脹到通脹緩和期間的資產表現：1973年至1983年，美國經歷了從大通脹到通脹緩和的過程，按照CPI增速變化可以把這段時期劃分爲通脹上行期和下行期；結合美國經濟形勢和CPI增速變化，可以將美國經濟劃分爲衰退、復甦、過熱和滯脹四個階段。
期間實物資產表現總體好於金融資產。實物資產中，原油表現好於黃金、工業原料，黃金錶現出明顯的抗通脹屬性；金融資產中，美債表現好於美股、美指，美國三大股指分化明顯。
本輪美國大通脹和1970年代大通脹的相同之處主要有兩點：一是，通脹背後都有供給衝擊的影響；二是，美聯儲貨幣政策均落後於通脹曲線。不同之處則體現爲，美聯儲貨幣政策可信度提高，美國經濟靈活度增強（具體表現爲，工會力量減弱，勞工議價能力下降；能源獨立性提高，能源強度下降），這意味着當前美聯儲激進加息的緊迫性弱於沃爾克時期。
基於EIA對於國際原油價格年內持續回落的預測，我們預計美國CPI同比或已經觸頂，不過年末CPI增速仍將處於高位。亞特蘭大聯儲GDPNow預測模型顯示，美國經濟可能已經陷入技術性衰退。但美國私人消費尚具韌性。未來經濟出現輕度衰退的可能性較大，年內美聯儲緊縮可能放緩。預計下半年金融資產表現排序是美元＞美債＞美股；實物資產表現排序是黃金＞原油＞工業原料。
風險提示：地緣政治局勢超預期，全球疫情發展超預期，美聯儲貨幣緊縮超預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
