台華新材(603055):國產己二腈投產在即 上游切片降價預期增強
本報吿導讀:國產己二腈即將投產,上游切片降價預期增強,錦綸66民用需求有望迎來爆發式增長。投資要點:投資建議維 持2022-2024 年EPS 分別為0.65/0.91/1.08 元,考慮到公司龍頭地位穩固、成長性較強,給予公司2023 年略高於行業平均的20 倍PE,上調目標價至18.2 元,維持“增持”評級。國產己二腈投產在即,錦綸切片降價預期增強。近年來,國內企業着力攻克己二腈生產壁壘,國產己二腈產業化進程加速。其中,由中國化學與齊翔騰達合資設立的天辰齊翔的20 萬噸己二腈項目(流程優化後最高可達30 萬噸)於2022 年3 月開始試生產,我們預計有望於近期投產。此外,海外錦綸66 切片巨頭英威達釋放降價預期,有望刺激錦綸66 下游需求爆發。錦綸66 迎來發展黃金期,公司有望憑藉先發優勢搶佔市場。錦綸66性能出色,適用於生產瑜伽服飾和户外服飾等高端產品。此前因其上游原材料己二腈被海外英威達等公司壟斷,國內錦綸66 在民用領域滲透率較低。隨着己二腈國產化,原材料價格下行有望推動下游需求釋放,從而拉動民用錦綸66 滲透率大幅提升。錦綸66 民用纖維生產工藝複雜,設備及技術壁壘較高,台華新材作為國內民用錦綸66 纖維龍頭,先發優勢顯著,其6 萬噸錦綸66 在建項目將於2023Q2 投產,有望搶先佔領市場份額。可再生錦綸市場需求旺盛,新增產能項目穩步推進。在可持續發展願景的推動下,Nike、Adidas、優衣庫等品牌客户對可再生錦綸纖維的需求旺盛,訂單供不應求。公司在國內首次採用化學法制備可再生錦綸,突破了傳統物理法原材料受限的產能瓶頸。公司聯手三聯虹普打造國內首套萬噸級化學法再生錦綸項目,其2 萬噸在建項目將於2023Q2 投產,產能釋放有望推動業績高增。風險提示:疫情反覆導致消費需求不及預期
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