新強聯(300850):風電軸承國產化引領者 風機加速大型化下份額向好
本報吿導讀:風電軸承國產化率低,風機降本壓力下進口替代望加速;公司大兆瓦主軸量產進度領先,大機型加速滲透下份額有望提升;積極佈局齒輪箱零部件,打開第二成長曲線。投資要點:結論:風機降本壓力下,軸承國產化加速,作為國內風電軸承頭部供應商,公司大兆瓦主軸量產進度領先,預計充分受益;大機型加速滲透,對風電軸承設計和量產能力提出更高要求,格局預計向好,高盈利能力有望維持;公司積極規劃齒輪箱軸承進口替代,產品結構向好。維持2022-2024 年的EPS 為1.84、2.74、3.61 元,維持目標價114.08 元,增持評級。先發優勢顯著,大風機加速滲透利好公司份額。市場認為風電軸承國產化後行業競爭格局惡化,公司良好的盈利能力不可持續。我們認為大風機加速滲透將利好新強聯的份額,風機加速大型化下,認證時間變長,設備投資密度大幅提升,軸承設計與量產壁壘提高,公司率先與頭部主機廠合作,先發優勢強,份額有望持續提升,良好的盈利能力有望保持。大兆瓦軸承技術領先,上下游深度管理提效降本。公司攻克了直驅式風機三排滾子主軸軸承關鍵技術,掌握無軟帶淬火工藝,三排滾子和雙列圓錐滾子風電主軸軸承均已量產並供貨明陽、東方電氣和哈電等,5.5MW和6.25MW 等大兆瓦主軸軸承產品已批量供貨明陽。上游縱向一體化佈局,打造協同效應降本增效,下游加深客户合作,塑造產品認證壁壘。定增募投齒輪箱軸承項目,打開第二成長曲線。公司擬募資15 億元用於建設年產2000 個風電齒輪箱的零部件項目,並預計2024/25/26 年分別達產30%/70%/100%。全球齒輪箱零部件國產化後市場在100-150 億,與主軸軸承市場相當,公司有望藉此打開第二成長曲線。風險提示:疫情反覆下裝機不及預期、風電政策不及預期、原材料價格波動
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