《大行報告》德銀微降阿里(09988.HK)目標價至151元 評級「買入」
德銀發表研報指,考慮到上海解封以及今年「618」促銷活動GMV錄得按年增長,認為阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)已度過最艱難的一個季度,雖然宏觀不確定性及疫情等負面因素仍然存在,影響收入復甦趨勢,但認為阿里的成本控制措施有助於改善盈利彈性,亦憧憬宏觀經濟改善較預期快可能帶來上行空間。
該行將阿里2023至2024財年收入預測下調3%,並將調整後EBITDA預測分別下調1%及2%,以反映「618」活動結束後的復甦放緩及國際業務疲軟表現,預計國內業務於截至6月底止首財季見底。
阿里將於下月公布首財季業績,預測總收入按年跌2%至2,030億元人民幣,經調整EBITA則預期按年跌34%至276億元人民幣。其中創新及新業務經調整EBITA虧損料達17億元人民幣;雲業務收入料達177億元人民幣,按年增長10%,經調整EBITA料達3億元人民幣。
德銀將目標價由152元下調至151元,對應2023財年企業價值對EBITDA率為約15倍,維持「買入」評級,估計歐盟增值稅豁免措施效果反映,9月底止季度國際業務將出現改善。
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