把握消費復甦彈性，後續圍繞景氣彈性挖掘投資主線
國務院聯防聯控機制6月28日發佈了《新型冠狀病毒肺炎防控方案（第九版）》第九版防控方案提出，將密切接觸者、入境人員隔離管控時間從「14天集中隔離醫學觀察+7天居家健康監測」調整爲「7天集中隔離醫學觀察+3天居家健康監測」，解除集中隔離醫學觀察前不再進行核酸雙採雙檢；密接的密接管控措施從「7天集中隔離醫學觀察」調整爲「7天居家隔離醫學觀察」。
明確不同人口規模區域核酸檢測方案，針對省會城市和千萬級人口以上城市、一般城市、農村地區，綜合疫情發生後感染來源是否明確、是否存在社區傳播風險及傳播鏈是否清晰等因素進行研判，根據風險大小，按照分級分類的原則，確定區域核酸檢測的範圍和頻次。第九版防控方案對疫情相關風險人員的隔離管控時限和方式進行了優化。
3月底我們判斷，二季度層面上調高消費板塊和中遊製造景氣看法，目前基本兌現。4月底積極推薦佈局疫情改善後具確定性復甦彈性的品種如汽車、餐飲鏈；5月底基於景氣韌性+復甦彈性/確定性雙佔優推薦汽車(6月漲幅20.3%)、食品飲料(10.2%)、軍工(8.7%)、光伏(18.2%)、能源金屬(25.4%)、煤炭(0.4%)、基建(-0.8%)，行業組合跑贏滬深300+1.87%。
從6月最新高頻數據看，整體宏觀需求端恢復節奏依舊偏慢，但中觀線索已出現較多邊際向好趨勢。
從產業景氣角度：1）隨疫情管控放鬆，相比整體經濟需求服務業復甦展現出相對彈性，目前18城地鐵客運量（對應本地生活鏈）、執行航班計劃數（對應出行鏈）已恢復至疫情前約60~70%的水平，4月低點這一值爲20~40%。
2）地產已出現結構性弱復甦，30大中城市商品房銷售面積同比近期回暖明顯；
3）新興產業需求維持極強韌性，尤其仍處於產業上行週期的新能源板塊需求再超預期。
從企業盈利角度：4）大宗商品見頂回落，經濟需求回升仍在途中，中下遊行業盈利有望改善。
隨着多數板塊景氣回暖趨勢已得到驗證，後續在板塊選擇上我們建議更加重視景氣彈性，即在以上四條中觀線索中優選：1）需求韌性較強的消費；2）景氣仍有加速可能性的成長。
在此基礎上，6月板塊建議關注：食品飲料（餐飲鏈）/消費醫療、鋰電/能源金屬、光伏、軍工、煤炭；同時在中期關注產業週期底部向上的機會：養殖業、互聯網。
二季度業績仍有望維持較高增速板塊：鋰電材料、光伏、鋰電設備、軍工、半導體設備/材料/IGBT、醫藥（新冠產業、CXO）、煤炭、新能源金屬、化工（氟化工/化肥）、航運、綠電。有望超預期板塊：CXO、免稅、電池、鋰電設備。
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