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一文綜合大行於阿里巴巴(09988.HK)公布業績後最新目標價及觀點
阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)首季經調整每股盈利優於市場預期,今早股價抽上,盤中曾高見92.4元一度彈高13.9%。摩根大通指出,阿里巴巴第四財季收入略勝該行及市場預期,經調整每股盈利較市場及該行預期高12%及13%,大部分基於成本優化措施。富瑞下調對阿里巴巴目標由268元降至224港元,維持「買入」評級,指公司未來致力提升成本效益及爭取疫情業務機會。 阿里巴巴昨晚(26日)後公布截至今年3月底止第四季度及2022財年全年度業績。截至3月底止季度,非公認會計準則淨利潤按年跌24%至197.99億元人民幣,高於本網綜合14間券商預測中位數的170.25億元人民幣;歸屬於普通股股東淨虧損162.41億元人民幣,多於本網綜合14間券商預測中位數的虧損81.55億元人民幣。 公司季度收入增長9%至2,040.52億元人民幣,其中中國商業分部收入增長8%至1,403.3億元人民幣,本地生活服務分部收入增長29%至104.45億元人民幣,雲業務分部收入增長12%至189.71億元人民幣。經調整EBITA按年跌30%至158.11億元人民幣。截至今年3月底止12個月期間,阿里巴巴全球年度活躍消費者約13.1億,按季增加約2,830萬。當中中國市場實現超過10億,3.05億消費者來自海外,單季分別淨增加約2,460萬和370萬,按年淨增加分別為1.13億及6,400萬。 【經調整盈利 優市場預期】 高盛指,阿里巴巴2022財年第四財季度收入較該行及市場共識各高4%及2%,經調整EBITA略遜該行預期但勝市場預期9%。該行指,公司在中國零售市場的客戶管理收入有更高的變現率,客戶管理收入按年持平,受惠於廣告收入增加抵銷天貓及淘寶毛交易總額低單位數跌幅導致的佣金收入減少。公司的中國商業、國際商業、本地生活服務及雲服務的EBITA率勝預期,受有效成本控制推動,抵銷菜鳥、數碼媒體娛樂及創新業務虧損大於預期的影響。 瑞銀認為,阿里巴巴季度客戶管理收入按年升0.3%,較第三財季度按年跌1.3%改善,亦較該行預期的跌1.6%為佳。縱使零售銷售增長季度減速,消費者在新冠疫情下儲存必須品,有助盒馬鮮生、天貓超市及本地生活服務,中國電商EBITA亦較該行預期高7.8%。然而,國際商業、數碼媒體娛樂及雲服務收入略遜該行預期,整體經營溢利率略高於該行預期。該行料市場對阿里巴巴季績反應正面,並對「618」購物節及政府政策審慎樂觀。該行維持阿里巴巴「買入」評級及目標價136港元。 --------------------------------- 以下為券商對阿里巴巴(09988.HK)投資評級及目標價; 券商│投資評級│目標價 富瑞│買入│268港元->224港元 高盛│買入│180港元->154港元 瑞銀│買入│136港元 摩根大通│增持│130港元 --------------------------------- 以下為券商對阿里巴巴(BABA.US)投資評級及目標價; 券商│投資評級│目標價 富瑞│買入│276美元->230美元 高盛│買入│185美元->158美元 花旗│買入│177美元 摩根士丹利│增持│140美元 瑞銀│買入│140美元 摩根大通│增持│130美元 --------------------------------- 券商│觀點 富瑞│獨特生態圈具高投資回報率的 高盛│季度勝預期,受惠廣告變現及本地生活服務增長 摩根士丹利│季績勝預期 瑞銀│上季業績較市場原所憂慮表現佳 摩根大通│中國本土電商收入跑贏毛交易總額,毛利率在成本控制下超預期 花旗│季度收入及盈利勝預期,客戶管理收入按年持平勝預期
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