《大行報告》中金:阿里(09988.HK)加大「618」支持 相當於為用戶發消費券 指平台果斷應對宏觀壓力
中金發表報告表示,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(BABA.US)公布今年「618」助力商家舉措共計25條,覆蓋包括金融補貼、物流疏通、流量補貼、疫情特別舉措及技術升級五大方面。該行指作為平台的阿里巴巴積極採取行動,雖然可能短期影響平台的利益,但卻有利於商家的恢復和消費者信心的建立,指平台果斷應對宏觀壓力。
消費端方面,該行指阿里將優惠力度加大,促銷節奏延續去年。今年天貓618的「跨店滿減」從去年的滿200元人民幣(下同)減30元,將提升至滿300元減50元,優惠力度加大。整體節奏和去年相似,5.20開啟預售,隨後為三波促銷活動,第一波是5.31至6.3「開門紅」、第二波是6.4至6.13「天貓品類日狂歡、第三波是6.14至6.20的「天貓狂歡日」。該行認為消費券對消費刺激作用明顯,阿里此舉相當於為平台用戶發放了消費券。
中金指阿里巴巴(09988.HK)目前股價相當於2023財年非國際會計準則市盈率12倍。該行維持對其2022財年收入和盈利預測,鑒於疫情影響,分別下調對其2023財年收入和非國際會計準則淨利潤預測均2%,並下調2024財年收入和非國際會計準則淨利潤預測各2%及1%。該行維持對阿里巴巴「跑贏行業」評級,由於核心電商和雲計算估值中樞下移,將阿里巴巴(09988.HK)目標價下調11%至143港元,對應2022財年非國際會計準則市盈率為20倍,料有69%的上漲空間。(wl/s) ~
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