美股週報(4.18) | CPI 8.5%再創40年新高，核心通脹低於預期；美債收益率曲線繼續走高，三大股指回調；能源和消費板塊持續表現優異，航空酒旅反彈
上週美股整體回調。標普收跌2.1%，納指跌2.6%，道指表現相對穩定，收跌0.78%。美國十年國債收益率漲4.4%，收報2.83%，與兩年期國債收益率息差38個基點，相較上週繼續擴大。恐慌指數週漲幅為7.28%。油價重新大漲，WTI和布倫特原油均漲約9%。現貨黃金收漲1.5%，收報1974美元/盎司。
大盤主要走通脹邏輯，表現較好、創新高的集中在能源大宗、必選消費和醫藥醫療等板塊。重點事件包括：中美10年國債收益率近12年來首次倒掛，中國疫情政策可能轉向，盤面體現為航空酒旅強勢反彈。美國3月CPI同比增長8.5%基本在預期內，環比增長0.3%顯著低於預期，也低於此前幾個月的增幅，這讓市場中出現不少認為通脹見頂的聲音。
多位美聯儲官員講話，不過沒什麼新內容，核心圍繞着經濟增長可以匹配美聯儲的緊縮政策，即經濟軟着陸。加息縮表對定價邊際影響已較弱，從點陣圖來看，22年底利率2.5%沒有變動，定價波動主要來自於23年底預期利率——週四收盤報3%，即週中盤面主要圍繞23年多或少加息1次變動。5月、6月加息50個基點的概率不斷提升，5月加息50個基點基本板上釘釘。收益率曲線繼續走高，但邊際變動小。
行業板塊方面，標普11大板塊表現不一。能源和原材料板塊表現較好，分別收漲0.4%、0.66%。必選消費在超市、可樂等帶動下表現穩健，整體小幅收漲0.15%。工業板塊漲0.3%。高科技板塊跌幅居前，周跌幅達3.8%，醫療保健板塊跌3%，金融板塊跌2.6%，通訊板塊跌2.3%。公用事業板塊跌1%。
半導體板塊繼續走弱，費城半導體指數週跌3%，主要反映消費電子退潮的預期。具體而言，投行如高盛等認為由於中國對疫情的封控、俄烏衝突，以及全球性通脹，包括個人電腦、智能手機等在內的消費電子的需求將減弱，這對於芯片股無疑是較大利空。台積電週四盤前發佈超預期財報，但沒有能帶動板塊反彈。據財報和電話會紀要，台積電判斷消費電子需求近期確實在走弱，但同時表示汽車、高性能計算HPC等需求仍然強勁，公司今年增長目標和資本支出維持不變。
本週重點財經數據與事件：
週一中國公佈第一季度GDP數據。
週二美國公佈3月新屋開工數據；聖路易斯聯儲主席布拉德發表講話。
週三德國公佈3月PPI數據；美國公佈至4月15日當週原油庫存。
週四歐洲公佈3月CPI數據；美國公佈4月費城聯儲製造業指數。
週五美聯儲主席鮑威爾和歐洲央行行長拉加德參與IMF小組討論並講話。
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