“醉酒”行情又迴歸！白酒股持續走強，貴州茅台重回1800元
今日（4月14）港A兩地重要指數全線拉昇翻紅，A股市場方面，滬指、深成指拉昇超2%，創業板指漲0.35%。港股市場恆指、國指拉昇超1%，恆指漲0.7%。
白酒股早盤全線大漲，連續三日走高。
截止發稿，皇台酒業、天佑德酒漲停，酒鬼酒、今世緣、海南椰島漲超5%，古井貢酒、瀘州老窖漲超4%，捨得酒業、五糧液等紛紛跟漲。貴州茅台漲近3%重返1800元上方。
值得注意的是，皇台酒業在最近的六個交易日中已斬獲四個漲停板，累積漲幅達46%。
消息面上，近日，白酒企業扎堆發佈1至2月經營數據，均實現“開門紅”。貴州茅台淨利同比增長20%左右，山西汾酒淨利同比增長50%以上，今世緣淨利同比增長26%左右，酒鬼酒淨利同比增長130%左右。
長江證券表示，根據已經披露的2021年酒企預吿及2022年1-2月份經營情況，結合規模以上酒企數據來看，目前白酒行業發展的頭部集中、消費升級兩大趨勢仍在延續，且從歷史經驗來看，行業的長期發展趨勢大概率不會被短期的外部因素打破。因此，白酒行業未來發展的主線不變。
白酒板塊後市怎麼看？
近期市場普遍關注國內奧密克戎疫情對白酒年內消費影響幅度，對比2022和2020兩次疫情，華創飲食研報指出，22年白酒業績確定性更強。
儘管當下行業和市場都抱有較重的觀望情緒，但行業健康的底子仍在，體現在大多數酒企批價和庫存平穩，加上平穩渡過春節旺季壓力測試，當前全年回款進度普遍好於20年5%-10%。
另外考慮酒企從21Q3開始報表有所蓄力，大多數酒企尚未下調全年目標，相比於20年疫情突發讓眾多酒企措手不及，22全年業績確定性仍高，特別對於品牌力更強的一線酒企。年內節奏看，二季度受疫情影響及政策尚未落地，行業整體面臨的壓力較大，預計酒企或將考慮報表平滑，但在宏觀“穩增長”基調下，隨着後續疫情控制好轉和穩增長政策落地，下半年行業信心有望恢復。
來源：華創飲食
德邦證券研報指出，白酒一季度持續穩健增長，疫情衝擊至暗時刻已過，基本面上消費仍受到疫情衝擊的壓制，展望一季度預計仍能實現較為不錯的增長。當下白酒板塊仍然受到以下因素影響：1)茅台批價的穩定性；2)千元價位段競爭格局是否惡化；3)醬酒價格崩盤對次高端價位的衝擊，長期來看，隨着疫情精準化防控和疫苗接種率的提升，疫情對白酒消費的影響將逐期鈍化，當下時點無需過度擔憂。綜合來看，白酒板塊估值已經回落到舒適區間，全年業績增長確定性高，當下時點白酒板塊勝率賠率兼具。後續隨着茅台批價的觸底回升，疫情影響的逐期鈍化，白酒估值仍具一定修復空間。
展望2022Q2投資策略，方正證券認為，需要兼顧板塊發展邏輯的長期因素與疫情邊際好轉的短期因素，從當前的估值水位與長期邏輯來看，優質賽道大白馬仍為投資首選，從疫情影響因素的短期邏輯來看，疫情好轉後餐飲、啤酒、區域白酒逐步按序恢復，2021Q2基數較低的板塊有肉製品、啤酒、調味品、食品，2022Q2業績前瞻也將影響預期，但當前業績前瞻仍存不確定性，仍建議從長期投資的維度佈局優質賽道龍頭，與此同時重點關注疫情好轉後消費場景恢復的餐飲、啤酒、區域白酒板塊的邊際變化。
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