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《大行報告》摩通升阿里巴巴(09988.HK)目標價至75元 維持「減持」評級
摩通預計,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股價短期內將面臨來下行風險壓力,因為新一波疫情導致的封城對內地電子商務營運產生負面影響,其他業務運作也面對不利環境。考慮到上海於2021年貢獻中國零售額的4%,該行預計阿里巴巴的核心商品交易額增長將在3月和4月被拖累幾個百分點,因此該行將阿里巴巴三月和六月季度的核心 客戶管理收入按年增長率預測,改為分別下跌4%和2% ,預計9月和12月季度客戶管理收入按年增長將分別改善至1%和4%。該行維持阿里巴巴「減持」評級,將阿里巴巴2022年目標市盈率從7倍上調至11倍,反映副總理劉鶴在3月中旬發表支持經濟增長的講話,以及中國證監會新宣布關於境外上市監管的諮詢文件,目標價相應由63元上調至75元。 摩通認為,儘管阿里巴巴已預計在未來幾個季度對進行更理性投資,但考慮到執行時間和優化組織的一次性前期成本,預計3月季度不會看到有意義的成果,該行將阿里巴巴2022年和2023年經調整利潤分別下調了45%和22%。 大摩又將阿里巴巴2022年和2023年營收預測分別下調2%和5%,以反映疫情復燃的影響,將2022年和2023年非公認會計原則每股盈利預測分別下調9%和22%。
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