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今天市場的一些信息

作者 | 明野

數據支持 | 勾股大數據(www.gogudata.com)

大家好,今天簡單説下互聯網和地產

互聯網主要是阿里的回購,250億美金,差不多等於阿里十分之一的市值了,金額中概股第一,港股的話,我看了2020年到現在的回購金額,第一名小米也只有約100億港幣,當然小米今天又説要100億回購,所以也不算上升特別多,和這個250億美金不能比。

現在對於互聯網公司來説,在反LD的背景下,做投資其實選擇不多,但也不難選,回購就是最好的選擇,尤其是一線大廠,主營業務都是現金大奶牛,自己公司目前估值也夠低,基本都是10x+的估值,不管是做員工激勵還是註銷提升EPS,都是不錯的選擇,也能給市場很正面的形象。後面我相信會有更多的公司開始回購。

互聯網現在整體來説,在上上週金融委開會周,市場預期國內監管會開始好轉,雖然有些東西還沒説法,但估計會加快落地,同時外部制裁風險也在放緩,情緒改善很多。現在階段首先可以關注業績好+政策有相對利好的二線公司,像網易、三七(遊戲版號),貝殼(地產政策)這些。大廠可能要看Q2業績再説,畢竟還有政策沒落地,另外攜程的話可以看疫情進展。

地產經過這幾天的反彈,雖然幅度不小,但仍然在這些年的低位,主要還是基本面並沒有逆轉,只是情緒得到緩解。防範化解風險應對方案從提出,到落地,到反映到房企經營,還有一段路要走,也需要時間,而個別房企能否在這個時間內撐下來是仍然存疑的,就算存活下來,在機構投資者那裏,債券優先級依然高於股票。今晚恆大的電話會,只是説了要重組啥的,也沒有提出具體方案,然後看樣子年報是要推遲了。

地產其他公司,尤其是民企,市場需要銷售回暖並在此期間債務正常償還才會對行業重塑信心,而在疫情擾動及居民收入預期減弱下,整個地產行業仍處在巨大的不確定性中。在穩增長和防風險背景下,這個時候,市場又一次開始博弈政策預期,而通常景氣度底部+政策改善階段是最好的投資時機。三穩及保交付是政策的首要目標,雖然有信心行業會軟着陸,但個別房企的抗壓能力則不會在政策考慮的優先範圍之內。

從申萬房地產指數的周線來看,行業自恆大暴雷之後,整體是震盪行情。除了保利發展等少數國央企,一眾地產公司普遍在極低的位置。在這個過程中,隨着時間的推移,能夠生存下來的房企還是會有一些波動性行情;終局來看,迴歸常識,就算給個製造業的估值,也比現在高很多。

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