《大行報告》瑞信上調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至173元 評級「跑贏大市」
瑞信發表研究報告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)第三財季收入按年增長10%,符合預期,非國際會計準則下EBITA則稍勝預期,主要由於新業務虧損較預期中少。
按業務劃分,核心業務客戶管理收入(CMR)因宏觀經濟疲軟、商家補貼及市場競爭所拖累,期內下跌1%;本地服務則符合預期增長27%;雲計算業務第三財季僅增長20%,令人失望。受通訊應用程式釘釘投資所拖累,利潤率僅0.7%。
瑞信指,投資者關注阿里增長前景持續疲軟,2022財年收入增幅可能觸及20%至23%指引的下限。管理層強調阿里巴巴被低估,透露正在考慮股票回購及分拆成熟業務以釋放價值。
該行相信,近期宏觀前景疲弱已獲消化,過去一年阿里盈利預測多次被下調,加上增長放緩及主動投資增加,如果未來幾個季度虧損收窄且盈利觸底,認為估值不高的阿里將得到投資者重新關注。
由於新業務虧損減少,瑞信將2022至2024財年盈利預測上調4%至5%,但因宏觀疲軟而下調收入預測,目標價由170元上調至173元,維持「跑贏大市」評級。
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