鋰電池材料價格持續上漲！碳酸鐵鋰板塊捲土重來
早盤，市場低開高走，創業板反彈力度強於上證指數。其中鹽湖提鋰貢獻最大，板塊盤中拉昇，帶動磷化工、氟化工、鋰電池等新能源板塊集體反彈。
鹽湖提鋰板塊收盤漲超6%，其中倍杰特20cm封板，天齊鋰業、金圓股份漲停，西藏礦業、贛鋒鋰業漲超8%，前期熱門概念股盛新鋰能、西藏珠峯、華友鈷業紛紛跟漲。
消息面上，鋰電池材料價格持續上漲。據上海鋼聯發佈數據顯示，今日鋰電材料報價普遍上漲，電解鈷漲1700元/噸；四氧化三鈷漲10000元/噸；氧化鈷漲5000元/噸；金屬鋰漲5萬元/噸，均價報203萬元/噸；電池級碳酸鋰漲10000元/噸，均價報40萬元/噸。
值得注意的是，2022年元旦，電池級碳酸鋰價格突破30萬元/噸，僅一個多月，價格漲幅已經逼近4成。而對比2021年年初5.5萬元的均價，電池碳酸鋰價格更是漲幅超6倍。
國泰君安認為，碳酸鋰價格持續走高，鋰資源逐漸成為鋰電池產業鏈供需最關鍵的環節。部分碳酸鋰企業已開啟時價交易模式，上門採購碳酸鋰的客户按照取貨當天現價成交，碳酸鋰供給緊缺程度可見一斑。
鋰礦爭奪的緊迫性在於，一方面，面向TWh時代，供應鏈有效供給將面臨巨大缺口，電池企業需提前防範資源斷供風險；另一方面，鋰電材料價格快速上漲，電池企業需平抑供應鏈價格波動，實現核心原材料成本管控。高工鋰電數據預測，到2025年全球新能源汽車滲透率將達到25%以上，這將帶動全球動力電池出貨量超過1100GWh。儲能市場拐點也將加速到來，預計2025年全球儲能電池出貨量將達到416GWh。再加上輕型車、低速車、重卡、船舶等場景需求，2025年全球動力電池合計需求將有望達到1800GWh。按照1萬噸碳酸鋰加工產能可滿足15GWh電池需求估算，將需要120萬噸的碳酸鋰產能與之匹配。
該機構認為，強化鋰資源戰略已成為各個資源國的共識，資源爭奪將愈發激烈。從行業方面判斷，全球主要規劃鋰資源開發進度或難以匹配需求增長的速度與量級，且鑑於資源項目的複雜性，其實際開發進度不確定性較高，開發進度有可能顯著低於預期。需求拉動下，預計至2023年，鋰鹽將持續處於供不應求的狀態。鋰資源供應緊缺壓力下，強化鋰資源戰略已經成為全球共識，未來爭奪勢必愈加激烈。事實上，2021年以來，伴隨新能源市場持續升温，動力電池、材料、汽車、產業等行業巨頭以及金融資本加速進場，全球鋰礦爭奪態勢不斷升級。
此外，渤海證券認為，預計2021-2023年供需持續偏緊，鋰價中樞將持續走高，預計2021-2023年供需差分別為-15.1、-9.9、-3.4萬噸LCE。鋰原料實質性短缺，同時預估下游對漲價接受度較好，預計2022、2023年價格中樞將持續走高，行業盈利得到保障。
不過也有投資者認為，鋰礦迴光返照，弱勢反彈難以形成上升趨勢，何況鋰電池產業鏈前兩天已經反彈了一小段，目前處於乍暖還寒的局面，後面能不能持續，還是要看各方資金的博弈。
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