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今天市場的重點信息

作者 | 明野

數據支持 | 勾股大數據(www.gogudata.com)

大家好,今天説兩個事,第一個是剛出的重磅數據。

1月社會融資規模增量為61700億元,預估為53850億元,同比多增9842億元,數據超預期。

新增人民幣貸款4.2萬億元、是單月統計高點,同比多增3806億元,貢獻新增社融同比增量的39%左右;政府債券、企業債券分別同比多增3589億元和1882億元,合計貢獻社融同比增量超55%;非標融資同比轉正,股票融資同比小增。

另外比較重要的是,企業中長期貸款同比多增600億元至2.1萬億元、結束連續6個月的同比負增;

M1同比-1.9%、上月為3.5%,M2同比9.8%、較上月回升0.8個百分點。M1轉負與春節錯位的基數效應等因素有關,但還是值得關注,畢竟M1代表了實際購買力;存款分項中,居民存款、企業存款分別同比多增3.9萬億元和減少2.3萬億元,財政存款同比少增超5800億元、或指向財政持續發力。

整體來説,“穩增長”從放水上被證實了,下面更多就要觀察經濟數據能不能起來,也就是是不是真寬信用了,是不是真的企業願意花錢了,反正一月份的PMI數據是一般般的。

從節奏上來説,如果未來經濟數據企穩,那麼這波“穩增長”行情,反而可能是到頭了,所以節奏很重要。説到節奏,其實這個數據是好是壞,都能解釋為利好。數據好,那麼穩增長的邏輯通順。數據不好,那麼之後一定會再度加碼,政策工具箱裏面還有很多新型的,或者傳統的工具可以用。

核心還是今年企業盈利會增速會出現較大下滑,市場可以選擇的板塊不多了,難得碰到一個政策支持的。

關於成長股最近的下殺,尤其是龍頭寧德,更多是資金層面的問題,比如今天傳的基金贖回。雖然不知真假,但起碼可以説明市場關注的是資金層面的問題。而資金和基本面的背離,往往説明孕育機會的開始。

之前説過,今年的機會分上下半場,上半場是穩增長,下半場是看性價比選成長。

第二個,其實要説港股。

港股從今年開市,已經走了一小波行情了。

港股從某種程度上,可以理解為我們的一個板塊。主要是金融地產板塊和互聯網科技板塊,當然還有一些其他的小板塊,但核心的就那兩個。

這兩個板塊去年經歷了什麼我就不用多説了。

但是從最近的走勢看,築底非常明顯。今天的社融數據,主要是企業端的,居民中長短期貸款還是下降,居民貸款説白了就是房貸。因為“房住不炒”,這塊至今還被按着。

但穩增長背景下,房地產作為支柱產業,託底是必要的。更何況從基建去穩,能不能出效果現在還是問號,萬一出不了效果呢。

房地產從1月銷售來看,普遍下滑較多。銷售起不來,所謂的良性循環很難打通。需求端政策現在除了按揭有所鬆動,其他有力措施還沒出台。現在市場都知道差,就看穩的方面能否超預期,第一輪集中供地又要開始了,留下的時間不會太多。

港股的地產,又在低位,感覺已經不能再差了。

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