《大行報告》高盛:美股年初開局艱難 籲持有資產負債表強及估值適中股份
高盛發表報告指,美股年初開局艱難,標普500指數從1月3日紀錄高位下跌8%,納斯達克100指數從去年11月紀錄高位跌13%,逾半納斯達克100指數成分股過去兩個月跌逾一成。
報告指,近期市場輪動及投資者對談顯示對業績增長前景出現憂慮:6間標普500指數成分企業中,5間的首季度業績指引均差於預期。標普500指數前瞻性市盈率縱使在今年以來已跌2點至19.6倍,但仍屬高企。名義利率已在過去1個月上升30至40點子,通脹調整實質利率亦由負1釐減至負0.6釐。
若以標普500指數現價及市場對成分股今年每股盈利預測224美元計算回報率,並與美債名義利率1.7釐及實際利率負0.6釐比較,兩者息差分別爲336及570點子,在歷史水平僅爲第33及第50百分位數。此外,投資者股票持倉縱使減少,但在歷史水平上屬高企。
高盛建議投資者持有在毛利率憂慮下有定價能力的股份,且基於金融狀況收緊,持有資產負債表強勁及估值適中股份。
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