酒店餐飲指數快新高了？
本文來自格隆匯專欄：國泰君安證券研究，作者：鄭旭
不是說疫情嚴重麼，爲什麼酒店餐飲指數（880423）居然默默的快創出半年以來的新高？這完全看不出一點受疫情影響的樣子啊？！今天我們就一起來探究一下爲什麼酒店餐飲指數會有這樣的表現。
我先說結論，影響酒店行業的因素除了我們能直線聯想到的房租和出租率之外，可能大多數人看不到的是，在疫情之下，行業格局發生的深刻改變。而7月以來，酒店行業股價開始上行的原因，其實就因爲行業格局的變化，即疫情之下，整個行業供給側加速出清，小的民營酒店漸進退出，反而市場份額開始向着頭部連鎖品牌集聚。這可能就是酒店餐飲指數上行的最主要的邏輯，也是超出市場預期的點。
下面我們來看一些數據：
2021
年第三季度，國內星級飯店數量6999 家，同比+1.52%，環比-0.86%；國內星級飯店營業收入353.91
億元，同比-3.99%，環比-19.12%；其中餐飲收入140.71 億元，比重39.76%，客房收入148.73
億元，比重41.94%。全國星級飯店平均房價345.05
元/間，同比+6.1%；平均出租率43.68%，同比-10.91%。全國一、二星級飯店數量791家，同比-8.34%，環比-1.37%；三星及以上飯店數量6208
家，同比+0.18%，環比+1.90%。
通過上面數據，我們能看到：
第一、疫情的確對於酒店行業有影響。出租率，以及營業收入均出現下滑。
第二、行業競爭格局改變。比如一星二星酒店家數的下降，三星以上酒店家數的增加，
第三、平均房價上漲。尤其是在平均出租率下滑10.91%的背景下，酒店的平均房價到了345.05元，同比出現增長。這顯然不正常。
在我看來，這有兩方面原因，一方面原因，隨着中國經濟的發展，消費者對酒店品牌與服務質量的要求度不斷提高，帶動酒店行業消費水平的提高。另一方面原因是因爲疫情之下，行業加速供給出清，酒店行業正在經歷分散到向頭部集中的過程，競爭格局的改變導致平均房價的上行。
考慮到這些，應該不難理解爲什麼在如此弱勢的環境下，酒店行業股價不斷上行了吧？如果考慮到未來疫情得以控制，跨省跨境旅遊的恢復，國內市佔率較高的行業龍頭股價可能會更有彈性。
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