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美國散戶人生大件事:抄底、繳稅?

近期美股市場的調整折射出華爾街的衆生相,即使是美國頂尖銀行在市場調整面前,也左右搖擺,不同職銜的給的策略大不相同。只有美國散戶一如既往的頭鐵,將跌就抄底貫徹到底。

本週,摩根大通全球策略主管Marko Kolanovic 在對其客戶表示,逢低買入。當時他的老闆,也就是摩根大通CEO Jamie Dimon 正對媒體發表預測,認爲市場在金融環境收緊、美聯儲加息不止4次的情況下,將發生災難性下跌。

而與此同時,摩根大通另一位諮詢老兵、該資產管理集團的固定收益首席執行官Bob Michele敦促該銀行的客戶“隱藏在現金中”,並警告美聯儲在標普的看跌期權可能會低30%。他說:“如果市場的主要擔憂是打擊通脹,美聯儲會讓市場進一步下跌,任何看跌期權的走勢都可能是股票下跌15%-30%,而不是2%-3%。”

不管他們誰對誰錯,反正美國散戶是信了Marko Kolanovic 的策略,衝忙進場抄底。機構則在更加鷹派的美聯儲會議紀要和鮑威爾言論中匆匆拋售。有意思的是,對衝基金這一次沒有站在散戶的對立面,而是和散戶一起,逢低買入,爲美股託底。

正如美國銀行的Jill Carey Hall 在報告中陳述的那樣,該銀行的客戶是“2022年第一週美國股票的淨買家(金買入額約爲5億美元),在此期間,標普500指數下跌1.9%。ETF和股票都是客戶積極買入的資產。”

Jill Carey Hall 繼續深挖近期股市資金流動,表示該行的散戶和對衝基金客戶是上週市場大幅調整時的領頭買家,而其他機構客戶則是開年以來賣出最多的客戶,資金淨流出量是近一年最多的一週。

Jill Carey Hall還表示,繼續深入瞭解,其客戶購買的股票類型沒有特別的偏好,市值大小雨露均沾。

值得注意的是,正如高盛最近觀察到的那樣,散戶在1月份通常是積極的買家,而其他羣體則是賣家。Jill Carey Hall表示,平均而言,1月份是美國銀行客戶流入美國股市最強勁的月份,過去14年中有10年出現淨買入。

摩根大通量化策略師Peng Cheng表示,散戶在週二買入10.7億美元,這是連續第三天買入超過10億美元。在上週的大跌中,散戶更勇,在所謂的黑色星期五的淨買入額達到了16億美元,創下歷史最高紀錄。

更加有意思的事情也出現了!當散戶和對衝基金成爲抄底主力時,上市公司也沒閒着。據美國銀行數據,該行的企業客戶回購在今年開始時表現強勁,高於過去幾年的1月同期水平,包括2019年(新冠疫情爆發前)。今年美股企業回購以科技、醫療和金融股爲首。

分析認爲,預計會有更多的公司回購。因爲在年終季節性疲軟之後,它們通常會在1月-2月期間加速回購。

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