又崛起一個新方向
本文來自格隆匯專欄:海榕財富風險投研,作者:海榕君
用一句形容昨天的市場:喝酒吸煙促銷費穩增長,電網改造建特高壓正在崛起。
在今年的經濟工作會議中,出現最多的一個字就是“穩”,穩字意味着國家需要努力做很多工作才能穩。隨着新冠疫情慢慢被治癒,其他國家的製造業產能也在陸續恢復中,可以預期明年的出口增長壓力比較大。
面對增長困境,國家仍然沒有選擇鬆綁房地產,選擇的是另外兩條路:
國家為什麼強調增加新能源消納能力?
前三季度全國棄風電量約 147.8 億千瓦時,棄風率 3.1%;棄光電量約 50.2 億千瓦時,棄光率 2%。
新能源消納的困難和問題主要集中於三點:
參考國家能源局對“十四五”期間如何解決新能源消納問題的迴應,增加新能源消納能力 需要對症下藥,針對輸電壓力要加快構建跨省、跨區的電力通道的建設,發揮大電網綜合 平衡的能力;針對調度壓力要加快抽水蓄能等靈活的電源建設,以及各類儲能 規模化的示範;針對供需壓力要着力釋放需求響應潛力,加強綠色電力證書交易和碳市場 建設,進一步體現可再生能源生態環保價值。
新能源發電都上漲幾波了,儲能也上漲兩大波了,電網改造的特高壓板塊一直漲幅相對小一些 ,漲幅小的原因是這個行業本身預期增長確實不高 ,按照2021年9月9日 國家電網在2021能源電力轉型國際論壇的披露:未來五年計劃投入2萬億元推進電網轉型升級,預期是2021年 3870億人民幣 ,2022年4140億人民幣,2023年5160億人民幣,2024年 5370億人民幣,2025年 5870億人民幣,2022年到2025年投入 複合增速11%。

投資其實很簡單,歸納成一句話就是:長期大空間,短期高成長。特高壓行業11%的增長相對光伏行業明年40%增長,儲能行業明年60%增長還是低不少。因為市場預期特高壓行業的增速低,前期市場給特高壓龍頭股許繼電器的估值也相對低一些。明年經濟壓力比較大,特高壓新基建這一塊 ,國家如果加大投入,這個 行業會有更好的表現。如果沒有超預期的投入,要注意風險。
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