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光伏股再度走弱 隆基股份跌4%
格隆匯11月25日丨延續昨日跌勢,光伏股今日再度走弱。其中,福斯特跌5%,中信博跌4.11%,隆基股份跌3.97%,天合光能跌3.54%,錦浪科技、固德威、東方日升、上機數控等均處於下跌中。昨日上午公佈的國內太陽能級多晶硅報價顯示硅料價格並沒有下跌。市場或繼續擔心硅料價格未下跌,組件價格下降會壓縮利潤。海通證券稱市場反應有些過度,組件價格的小幅回落確實可能會發生。2.1元/W的價格之下,地面電站需求受到了較大影響,目前國內大量地面電站延期,個別五大四小今年暫緩招標,中東印度的項目大量延期,不過歐州和户用對價格敏感度低,需求支撐度依舊較高,當然目前搶裝季快過,價格的下降會刺激需求的進一步提升,總體對行業是利好。除了需求因素外,工業硅價格回落也是一個因素。21Q3時看來,工業硅22年H1前偏緊、價格上漲是確定的,不過由於雲南政策多變導致價格暴漲過度,而10月工業硅實際供給並沒有減少,多晶硅供給因為江蘇限產略有減少,導致工業硅的7-8萬的高價支撐不夠,目前回落到3萬左右。因此多晶硅和組件如果降價其實利潤沒有縮窄,縮的是工業硅的利潤。光伏21年的裝機接近160GW,22年210GW基本是比較確定的量,市場做的只不過是尋找能夠支撐這麼多量的價格曲線,終端需求可以支撐較高組件價格,但不會是無限制往上。預計22年組件單W利潤不會低於今年,多晶硅價格可能會略有回落,一線組件公司由於其品牌、渠道、資金優勢可以獲取超越於二線的溢價,而且技術進步會帶來成本下行和單W利潤的超預期。

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