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《大行報告》德銀下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至196元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 11-23 10:05
德銀發表報告,指雖然對短期疲軟的消費情緒持謹慎態度,但仍然對阿里(09988.HK)新業務的巨大潛力充滿信心,維持「買入」評級,目標價就由204元降至196元。 德銀指,阿里近期公布季績,並將2022財年的收入增長指引由按年增長30%,下調至20%至23%之間,低於市場預期的29%,意味著下半財年按年增長為11%至16%。管理層認為,由於消費增長放緩,內地商業收入指引較疲軟,而其他業務部門,如本地服務、國際商業、雲計算等料保持穩健。 對於阿里指將繼續投資於如淘寶特價版、社區業務、ele.me、Lazada以實現長期可持續增長,德銀認為這將拖累下半財年的利潤率,因此將2021和2022財年的收入預測分別降低2%及3%,調整後的純利預測分別降低12%和11%。 不過,德銀指新機遇抵銷內地商業挑戰,例如淘寶特價版繼續在偏遠城市受到歡迎,淘菜菜亦將業務擴展到約200個城市,商品成交金額(GMV)按季增長150%。國際業務擴張方面,Lazada、Trendyol和AliExpress都表現出強勁的GMV和用戶增長,國際年度活躍消費者(AACs)達到2.85億。鑒於東南亞和土耳其等地區的電子商務滲透率較低,以及阿里在技術和基礎設施方面的豐富經驗,管理層認為在這些地區有巨大的潛力。就國內商業而言,德銀認為近期的挑戰將來自消費放緩及競爭加劇。
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