標普:樓市寒流將侵襲地方國企
標普全球評級表示,近期土地出讓潮讓中國地方政府的財政受到影響,開發商購地需求不振,波及地方政府,預計地方政府通過進一步節制支出,現金流受影響最大的將是地方國有企業,尤其是隸屬低層級地方政府的國企。
標普全球評級信用分析師朱素徵表示,中國地方政府的財政收入仍然高度依賴房地產開發活動,相關收入持續佔地方政府財政收入的30%左右,其中主要是土地出讓收入,同時也有房屋交易稅費,受影響最大的,將是地方政府下屬的大型國有企業,估計約三分之一的國企均與國內房地產開發和建設行業相關。
朱素徵認爲,如果地方政府最後失去了支持重點企業的能力,那麼就有可能造成就業減少、投資流失、經濟增長放緩,運營關鍵基礎設施的國企或會倒閉。標普預計,中國明年住宅銷售額下降10%,2023年再降5%至10%。
標普估計,地方非金融國有企業的債務合計相當於中國GDP約50%,同時相當於地方政府總收入的2倍,2016至2020年期間,地方國企債務對EBITDA比率均值達到14倍,承受外部衝擊的能力很弱。
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