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《大行報告》中金:阿里(09988.HK)股價已反映業績承壓因素 料有海外資金逐步買入
阿思達克 10-21 14:25
中金發表研究報告,指阿里巴巴(09988.HK)昨日(20日)股價漲幅達6.7%,較近期最低點已累計反彈33.2%。該行指,市場一致預期下半年公司業務恐將持續承壓,但認為對業績疲軟的預期,已充分反映在現價中。目前市場對阿里巴巴的分歧較大主要體現在資金技術層面,國內投資人與海外投資人觀點存在較大分歧。 該行指,有較高定價權的海外資金的逐步買入阿里,主要考慮公司各大指數中重較大,阿里有望逐步走出監管風險的陰霾,迎來估值修復,資金層面來看,預計短期多空雙方將持續博弈,股價還將持續波動,同時下半年業績疲軟的擔憂仍存,若大幅低於市場預期恐或進一步導致股價下行。短期內若進一步出現任何強力的股價催化劑,股價波動勢能或將進一步被放大,從而在股價上形成明顯的拐點。 報告又指,阿里下半年業績恐持續受到來自經濟下行和行業競爭激烈的壓力,但長遠核心電商基於供給側優勢的阿里巴巴電商核心基本盤仍保持穩健;新業務淘特用戶增長屢創新高;儘管加大投放犧牲短期收入及利潤,但用戶獲取、加強留存、搶奪份額的戰略路徑日益清晰,持續高舉高打市場份額已有逐步恢復的趨勢;阿里雲持續深自研技術雲原生處理器芯片、雲原生服務器、神龍40架構、PolarDB關係型數據庫、大數據AI平台等重磅產品不斷夯實阿里雲長期的基礎,予「跑贏行業」評級,目標價203元。
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