國泰君安：能源危機之下的全球類滯脹接力
來源：國泰君安
導讀
2021年先後發生於美國德州和歐洲的能源危機凸顯了新舊能源轉型的陣痛，疊加疫情刺激的後遺症，短期難以有效解決供需矛盾。全球能源價格大漲進一步助推通脹，疊加經濟復甦放緩且不均，海外經濟體面臨類滯脹接力，或將對外部政策帶來擾動。
摘要
疫後刺激餘威疊加新舊能源轉型陣痛，帶來能源危機。
1)疫情後大規模財政貨幣刺激導致流動性氾濫，能源等大宗商品容易受金融屬性驅動而出現上漲。疊加本次疫後，居民儲蓄大增，消費動能強而生產恢復慢以及供應鏈受阻，供需矛盾大，加劇漲價風險。
2)海外能源危機背後都有新能源轉型後能源體系不穩定的因素。爲實現脫碳，歐洲電力供應結構從煤電向天然氣、海上風電、核能等轉型，英國15%的電力來自於海上風電，由於英吉利海峽缺風導致風力發電不足，佔發電量41%的天然氣發電需要替補，而歐洲天然氣也在碳中和下供給壓縮，難以滿足需求，觸發天然氣價格大漲。美國德州也有壓縮煤炭機組導致電力供應不穩的問題，此外未建立容量市場和市場割裂缺乏調度能力也促成了大面積停電和電價飆漲。
3)在新能源供應體系難以快速變革且極端天氣頻發的背景下，週期性危機或仍將出現。
4)海外能源危機的啓示：
- 逐步有序退出傳統能源
- 必須進一步從發電端、輸送端、儲能端等構建更加智能和具有彈性的供電體系
- 建立更加廣泛的電力大市場，加強區域電力調配能力。
5)全球能源危機下看好三條賽道：
- 傳統能源-煤炭；
- 新能源—光伏運營、核電；
- 電網——輸電及儲能
考慮到四季度歐洲天然氣需求擡升、供給受限以及庫存歷史低位，我們認爲歐洲缺氣的局面至少持續到年底，帶動能源價格維持強勢。需求端主要由冬季取暖需求和經濟復甦支撐，供給端無論是LNG還是管道天然氣均難有改善，庫存處於歷史同期低位。考慮到拉尼娜氣候或導致北半球冷冬概率增加，天然氣價格還有進一步上行風險。歐洲天然氣緊張的局面可能要到“北溪2號”天然氣管道全面通氣纔能有所緩解，目前預計通氣時間是年底或2022年初。
除了能源價格外，結構性因素也在助推通脹升溫。芯片短缺、房租上行、工資上升等因素依舊是推動通脹的結構性因素。近期芯片漲價有所放緩，但供需缺口將持續到2022年中;房價的大幅上行正在向房租價格傳導，低空置率說明租房需求旺盛，房租上行可能持續性較強;美國職位空缺數處於歷史高位，將導致工資進一步上升。
全球增長回落，復甦不均，滯脹特徵加劇，需要警惕外部政策超預期風險。新興市場方面，雖然復甦並不充分，但部分國家迫於通脹壓力，貨幣政策已經“搶跑”。發達國家央行也陸續開啓貨幣政策正常化的進程，挪威成爲了疫情後第一個加息的傳統發達國家央行。美聯儲主席鮑威爾近期也表態承認通脹壓力。全球類滯脹接力，這將對外部政策環境帶來新的擾動。
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