瑞銀汪濤:內地信貸增速或於今明兩月見底 年底有望小幅反彈至約10.5%
瑞銀表示,內地8月新增人民幣貸款1.22萬億,增幅不及預期。調整後社融按年增速進一步下滑0.4個百分點至10.2%,而去年底增速爲13.3%。
瑞銀投資銀行亞洲經濟研究主管暨首席中國經濟學家汪濤預計,房地產相關信貸放緩,影子信貸和城投債發行都將保持疲弱。另一方面,爲加大對中小微企業紓困幫扶力度,人行近期宣佈年內新增3,000億元支小再貸款額度。再加上製造業投資繼續回暖、政府對綠色經濟和綠色金融的支援,這應能支撐企業中長期貸款增長。此外,政府債券發行應會提速,預計未來4個月新增地方政府專項債券發行1.6萬億元以上。
整體而言,汪濤預計信貸按年增速可能在9月至10月觸底,年底可能小幅反彈至10.5%左右。如果年內經濟增長的下行壓力加劇,政府可能會邊際放鬆對地方政府融資平臺和影子信貸的管控,並進一步加快財政支出節奏,包括在明年年初提前下達部分明年新增債券發行額度等。在此情形下,明年年初的信貸增速可能繼續小幅反彈;不過考慮到明年名義GDP增速可能放緩,年中之後的信貸增速可能會有所回落。
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