翻倍之後必回撤！標普500以史上最快速度翻倍
來源：WIND資訊
從去年3月，到今年8月，標普500指數一舉翻倍，這也是美股百年歷史上指數翻倍速度最快的一次，回顧歷史，翻倍後都會經歷不小的回撤，這一次呢？
2020年3月23日，標普500指數短期暴跌至2237點，但是在全球央行的力挽狂瀾下，美股大幅反彈，到今年8月16日，標普500指數最高來到4479點，相較當初低點已經翻倍，這一次只用了354個交易日，最快翻倍的一次。
當然此次翻倍和經濟的迅速恢復沒有太大關係，金融市場迅速收復失地的最主要原因是美聯儲釋放的天量流動性，每月1200億美元購債規模依然在持續。
歷史上每次股指翻倍後續怎麼走？當然以前至少需要幾年時間才能翻倍。
根據Dr. Robert Shiller的數據，下圖紅色區域表示每次從低點翻倍，可以看出，每次翻倍後都會有一定的回撤。
1974-1980：市場翻倍後出現了史上最嚴重的熊市，也是歷次翻倍後下跌幅度最大的，跌超200%。
1990-2000：翻倍後，出現了Dot.com崩盤。
2002-2007：互聯網泡沫爬出來後，又迎來金融危機。
2009-2020：流動性驅動此輪美股經歷了史上最長牛市，3月份美股以最快速度跌入熊市。
2020-至今：剛剛翻倍，盈利、經濟數據達到本輪頂峯。
所以，從歷史看，不斷上漲的市場，總是會遇到回撤甚至大熊市。最大區別是，下跌後的估值決定了再次上漲的幅度。現在主流分析師都認爲「標普500指數以最快速度翻倍」是未來繼續上漲的一個證明，但進一步攀升的阻力比許多人意識的要強很多。
首先是支撐本輪上漲最主要動力的美聯儲未來還會持續寬鬆嗎？投資者都在等待本週央行會議。另外通脹水平不斷提高，壓低企業利潤率。當然並不是建議投資者立刻清倉，已經形成「趨勢」的市場很難立刻扭轉，但確實需要風險管理。記住1998年時任美國SEC主席Arthur Levitt的經典名言：
「誘惑很大的時候，通常壓力也很大，放棄對數字的幻想。」
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