9月銀行策略：經濟下行期，堅守優質銀行
本文來自： 志明看金融，作者： 廖志明
經濟進入下行期。7月經濟數據明顯回落，基建投資當月同比負增長，房地產投資增速回落明顯，出口增速下行。5月以來，信貸需求轉弱，房地產信貸集中度政策及融資平台融資明顯收緊之下，我們預計後續信貸需求持續偏弱。年初以來，社融增速已由上年末的13.4%大幅回落至7月末的10.7%，我們預計未來一年社融增速維持低位。融資平台融資收緊之下，雖有政府債券發行後置等影響，但預計基建投資增速難以改善。我們預計，未來一年國內經濟下行壓力加大。
經濟下行期銀行難有大行情，但或有相對收益。覆盤過去十年銀行股走勢，經濟下行期銀行股難有板塊性大行情，例外為2014年四季度，當時為經濟下行疊加利率下行且市場預期後續貨幣政策大幅寬鬆；其餘經濟下行期銀行板塊跑贏大盤的主要為相對收益。展望下半年，經濟下行壓力加大，國內貨幣政策偏寬鬆但難以大幅寬鬆，社融增速維持低位，類似2018年下半年，銀行板塊或有相對收益。
堅守優質銀行。零售銀行基本面受經濟下行影響較小。今年5月底-7月底期間，因經濟下行預期升温及機構資金“虹吸效應”等，銀行板塊估值明顯回落，優質銀行股價亦大幅回調。當前，優質銀行估值已從高位明顯回落，性價比較高。我們主推估值較低的優質銀行-平安銀行、興業銀行、江蘇銀行等。未來幾個月，銀行板塊相對收益或較明顯，有望跑贏大盤，體現一定的防禦價值。
上半年業績較好。21H1商業銀行淨利潤1.1萬億元，同比增長11.1%，增速較21Q1提升8.8個百分點。主要原因為：一、由於20H1受疫情影響基數較低，20H1淨利潤同比下降9.4%；二、由於疫情得到有效控制，經濟持續恢復，資產質量好轉及息差降幅收窄。上市銀行整體淨利潤增速與商業銀行走勢一致，預計多數上市銀行1H21淨利潤增速較高。
一線龍頭為銀行板塊定價標杆。今年一季度，銀行板塊表現較好，銀行板塊的一線龍頭-招行、平安和寧波銀行估值不低，使得資金對業績靚麗的優質城商行-江蘇、蘇州、杭州等關注明顯上升，優質城商行股價崛起。隨着近兩個月，一線龍頭股價大幅回調，估值明顯回落，我們預計後續市場關注度將重回一線龍頭。相比其他銀行，一線龍頭-招行、平安和寧波銀行基本面受經濟下行影響較小。
風險提示：金融讓利及信貸需求走弱，息差收窄；經濟下行壓力加大，資產質量惡化等。
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